Crucial French Elections: National Rally's Potential Historic Win

Mainland France is voting in pivotal runoff elections, potentially granting Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally a historic victory. The elections could lead to a hung parliament, challenging President Macron's remaining term and affecting European economic stability, global diplomacy, and the war in Ukraine.

Voting has started in mainland France in critical runoff elections that could mark a historic win for Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally and its inward-looking, anti-immigrant views—or result in a hung parliament and prolonged political deadlock.

President Emmanuel Macron's bold decision to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections after his centrists' defeat in the European elections may undercut his authority for the next three years. These elections will significantly impact France's role in the Ukraine conflict, global diplomacy, and the economic stability of Europe.

The first round on June 30 saw the National Rally, led by Le Pen, achieve unprecedented gains. Over 49 million registered voters will decide the future of the National Assembly. Macron's weakened centrist majority, failing to retain power, will have to share governance with opposition parties, derailing his pro-business and pro-EU agenda. The campaign has been marred by racism, antisemitism, and Russian cyberattacks, with physical attacks against over 50 candidates. Approximately 30,000 police officers have been deployed for voting day, coinciding with France's busy summer events including the upcoming Paris Olympic Games and the Tour de France.

If National Rally wins an outright majority, France may see its first far-right government since World War II, with 28-year-old Jordan Bardella potentially becoming prime minister. Although polls suggest National Rally may not achieve the 289-seat majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, it would still make history as a major political force with xenophobic roots. Potential outcomes include cohabitation with Macron sharing power or a hung parliament, necessitating coalition negotiations or a technocratic government.

Both scenarios are unprecedented in modern France, complicating bold decision-making on labor law reforms, Ukraine aid, and deficit reduction. Financial markets have been uneasy since Macron called for snap elections following the National Rally's win in the European Parliament elections. Despite any outcome, Macron has announced he will remain president until the end of his term in 2027.

Many rural and small-town voters, unhappy with low incomes and what they see as an elitist Paris leadership, have rallied behind the National Rally. While Le Pen has softened some party positions to increase electability, its far-right core values persist, advocating for stringent immigration controls and enhanced police powers.

(With inputs from agencies.)