Building Resilience in the Face of Climate-Induced Migration in Pakistan and Viet Nam

The UNDP report examines how climate change will drive human mobility in Pakistan and Viet Nam, particularly through water scarcity and urbanization. It emphasizes the need for anticipatory policies to manage migration and enhance resilience by investing in rural development, urban infrastructure, and labor mobility.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report provides a forward-looking analysis of the interplay between climate change and human mobility, with a focus on internal migration up to 2050. This research was conducted by the UNDP Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, alongside the Crisis Bureau, and includes contributions from experts in Pakistan, Vietnam, and other countries. The report is part of the broader UNDP Predictive Analytics, Human Mobility, and Urbanization Project, which aims to predict the scale and nature of climate-induced human mobility and offer insights to inform policy and development strategies in the region. The report is based on a participatory foresight process, using predictive models and scenario-based analysis to identify risks, opportunities, and uncertainties in human mobility linked to climate change.

Water Scarcity: A Major Driver of Migration

One of the main findings of the report is that water scarcity will be a key driver of human mobility in both Pakistan and Vietnam, where rapid urbanization and climatic pressures are leading to increased rural-to-urban migration. For both countries, the availability of clean, safe water is projected to decline due to the combined effects of climate change and rising demand from urban centers. Sea-level rise and salinization of groundwater are already worsening conditions in coastal areas, especially in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam and the Indus Basin in Pakistan. These areas, crucial for national agriculture and food security, are likely to experience significant out-migration as farming livelihoods become increasingly untenable. The report emphasizes that rural development initiatives, including investments in more efficient agricultural practices and flood mitigation measures, could help some populations adapt in place, reducing the need for mass migration to urban centers like Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City.

Migration as a Key Adaptive Response

The report also highlights that human mobility should not only be viewed as a failure of climate adaptation but also as a key adaptive response. Migration can be a means of recovery from climate-related disasters such as floods, storms, and droughts. However, not all people are able or willing to migrate, leading to the phenomenon of involuntary immobility. In both Pakistan and Vietnam, social, economic, and political factors can limit mobility, and policies that discourage migration may exacerbate these challenges. In Pakistan, for instance, provincial governments often discourage rural-to-urban migration, which may prevent individuals from using mobility as a means of adapting to climate change. In Vietnam, policies such as rice subsidies and resettlement programs, while aimed at stabilizing rural populations, may also limit mobility, particularly for those in vulnerable regions like the Mekong Delta.

Urban Centers Under Pressure

In urban centers like Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City, the influx of climate migrants is expected to put increasing pressure on infrastructure, housing, and social services. The report raises concerns about the expansion of informal settlements and the challenges of integrating migrants into the urban economy. Many migrants end up working in the informal sector, where access to social protections such as health insurance and labor rights is limited. In Vietnam, studies show that migrants in cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Ha Noi are often excluded from social insurance systems, which are tied to permanent residency status. This lack of access to social protection can drive reverse migration, as migrants struggle to find stable employment and housing in urban areas.

Labor Mobility: An Opportunity for Resilience

The report further explores the potential of labor mobility to support climate resilience and sustainable development. Migration, particularly labor migration, can create opportunities for knowledge transfer, remittances, and the development of new markets. However, the mismatch between the skills of migrants and the demands of urban labor markets poses a challenge. In Pakistan and Vietnam, many migrants lack the vocational training needed to secure formal employment in urban centers, which can lead to higher levels of unemployment and poverty. The report suggests that targeted investments in education and vocational training could help bridge this gap and better align migrant skills with labor market needs.

Defining the Climate Migrant of the Future

Looking to the future, the report anticipates that the definition of a "climate migrant" will evolve, reflecting the increasingly complex spectrum of displacement and mobility. This shift will require more nuanced policies that address both voluntary and involuntary migration and consider the diverse needs of affected populations. As cities like Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City continue to absorb large numbers of migrants, policymakers will face difficult trade-offs between urban and rural development. The report emphasizes the importance of adopting anticipatory and inclusive policies that can mitigate the impacts of climate-induced migration while promoting resilience and sustainable growth.

The UNDP report provides valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities presented by climate change-related human mobility in Pakistan and Viet Nam. It underscores the importance of proactive planning and investment in rural development, urban infrastructure, and labor mobility to ensure that migration becomes a pathway to resilience rather than a source of further vulnerability. As climate change continues to reshape migration patterns in the region, the report calls for adaptive, inclusive, and long-term policy frameworks to meet the needs of both migrants and host communities.