Central Asia Strengthens Flash Flood Preparedness with New Regional Guidance System and Strategic Collaboration

Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) enhances disaster preparedness and coordination in Central Asia, improving forecasting, data sharing, and regional cooperation.

Flash floods are among the deadliest natural hazards in Central Asia, underscoring the urgent need for enhanced forecasting and preparedness to mitigate their devastating impact. The Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) plays a crucial role in this effort by providing vital information to governments, emergency services, and individuals, enabling them to prepare for and respond effectively to flash flood events. The system also fosters coordination between National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and National Disaster Management Authorities (NDMAs), ensuring that both agencies can act in unison during extreme weather events.

To advance these efforts, the Central Asia Region Flash Flood Guidance System (CARFFGS) and Pakistan-Afghanistan Flash Flood Guidance System (PARFFGS) held a Steering Committee Meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on 6-7 November 2024. The meeting, hosted by Uzhydromet in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), brought together stakeholders from NMHSs and NDMAs to discuss the development, sustainability, and regional cooperation needed to enhance flash flood forecasting operations and regional resilience.

Key Focus Areas Discussed

The Steering Committee Meeting addressed several critical priorities for the continued development of flash flood guidance systems across Central Asia and neighboring regions. Key areas of focus included:

• Regional Priorities and Upscaling Flash Flood Forecasting: The meeting emphasized the need to improve infrastructure to comply with the WMO’s Information System 2.0 (WIS 2.0), facilitating seamless data flow and integration into forecasting operations.
• Transitioning FFGS to WIPPS Regional Specialized Centers: The goal of transitioning the FFGS to become part of the WIPPS (World Integrated Flash Flood Prediction System) was discussed to establish Regional Specialized Flash Flood Forecasting Centres.
• Enhancing Coordination and Empowering Steering Committees: The Steering Committee members were tasked with addressing regional technical challenges, promoting cooperation, and evaluating the technical competencies of regional project proposals.
• Sustainability Phase of FFGS/WGC Phase IV: A review of the progress in ensuring the long-term sustainability of the FFGS and its role in climate adaptation and disaster risk management.
• Strengthening Tools and Strategies: A focus on evaluating training plans, marketing strategies, and research-to-operations initiatives to strengthen the system’s effectiveness in regional contexts.
• Hands-On Simulation Exercises: Practical breakout sessions designed to promote collaboration among NMHSs, NDMAs, and other stakeholders, ensuring hands-on understanding and improvement in flash flood forecasting operations.

Key Outcomes and Highlights

Several significant outcomes emerged from the meeting, particularly regarding capacity building, regional cooperation, and data sharing:

• Countries recognized the importance of building stronger verification processes and sharing critical data across borders to enhance flash flood forecasting accuracy and response times.
• The need for closer integration of CARFFGS and PARFFGS operations was underscored, particularly to address the challenges faced by transboundary river basins that span multiple countries.
• Kazakhstan expressed interest in becoming the WMO Regional Specialized Hydrological Centre for Flash Flood Forecasting, further solidifying its commitment to improving regional flash flood forecasting capabilities.
• Members stressed the critical role of WIS 2.0 in facilitating refined data operations and seamless integration into flash flood forecasting systems.

Milestones in the Development of CARFFGS

The Central Asia Region Flash Flood Guidance System (CARFFGS) is a significant milestone in the development of regional flash flood forecasting capabilities. It builds upon earlier international investments and regional partnerships:

• 2017: The United States Agency for International Development (USAID/BHA) provided the initial financing for the development of CARFFGS. The Hydrological Research Center (HRC) in San Diego was instrumental in setting up the system, focusing on hydrological and meteorological data modeling to support flash flood forecasting.
• 2021: The World Bank continued investing through the Central Asia Hydromet Modernization Project, which led to the creation of the Central Asia Flood Early Warning System. This initiative, developed by HRC, focused on riverine flood forecasting and landslide susceptibility mapping in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Basins.
• 2019-2023: The CREWS Afghanistan project built upon the success of CARFFGS, expanding it to include Afghanistan-specific features such as landslide susceptibility mapping and sub-seasonal to seasonal ensemble predictions. This effort enhanced Pakistan’s and Afghanistan’s ability to forecast flash floods more accurately, relying on advanced forecasting models like WRF and ICON.

The Road Ahead for Flash Flood Forecasting in Central Asia

The CARFFGS initiative marks a major step toward enhancing flash flood preparedness and resilience in Central Asia. By improving forecasting capabilities, strengthening data sharing networks, and fostering closer cooperation between countries and agencies, CARFFGS will help mitigate the impacts of flash floods, saving lives and minimizing property damage across the region.

Looking forward, the project will continue to rely on collaboration and investment in technology, training, and research to build a more sustainable and responsive flash flood guidance system. With WIS 2.0 integration, expanding partnerships, and focused efforts on data-sharing and capacity building, the region is poised to improve its resilience to one of the most devastating natural hazards faced by its communities.