WMO Predicts Above-Normal 2025 Summer Monsoon Across Asia Amid Shifting ENSO

Since its inception in 2009, FOCRA II has been instrumental in assisting National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) throughout Asia.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued its latest seasonal climate outlook for the boreal summer of 2025 through its regional climate forum for Asia—FOCRA II (Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia). This forecast provides critical insights into expected monsoon behavior, temperature variations, rainfall predictions, and tropical cyclone activity across one of the most climatically diverse and densely populated regions in the world.

Asia's Climate Dynamics: A High-Stakes Landscape

Asia, categorized under WMO Regional Association II (RA II), is home to over 60% of the global population. It faces substantial challenges due to its high seasonal climate variability and frequent occurrences of extreme weather events. The outcomes of each seasonal forecast significantly affect sectors ranging from agriculture and water resource management to public health and economic planning.

Since its inception in 2009, FOCRA II has been instrumental in assisting National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) throughout Asia. The forum, hosted by the China Meteorological Administration, plays a vital role in enabling countries to respond more effectively to seasonal climate variations and to prepare for potential natural disasters.

2025 Boreal Summer Outlook: Key Highlights

The seasonal predictions for the 2025 boreal summer are based on consolidated data from WMO’s Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts. These centers utilize advanced climate modeling and observational tools to generate outlooks with regional precision.

Monsoon Forecast

The summer monsoon, a critical climate driver in the region, is predicted to be above normal in both East Asia and South Asia. This heightened activity is expected to bring increased rainfall, especially beneficial for agricultural activities, although it may also raise the risk of flooding and associated hazards in some areas.

Precipitation Patterns

Precipitation forecasts suggest above-average rainfall in many regions, driven by monsoon circulations and external climatic forcing factors. This may alleviate drought concerns in certain parts, while requiring flood preparedness in others.

Temperature Trends

The temperature outlook for summer 2025 indicates conditions that are above or near normal across most Asian territories. Elevated temperatures may amplify heatwave risks in urban areas and strain energy systems due to increased demand for cooling.

Tropical Cyclones

The frequency of tropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea is projected to be near normal. While this means no drastic increase in cyclone numbers is expected, coastal areas must remain vigilant and continue enhancing resilience infrastructure.

ENSO Update: Transition to Neutral Phase

A notable shift in global climate drivers is also underway. The 2025 summer forecast reflects the transition from a La Niña phase—marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific—to ENSO-neutral conditions. This neutral state reduces the extreme influence of ENSO on weather systems, allowing regional climate features such as monsoons to play a more dominant role.

Implications for Policymakers and Communities

This seasonal forecast holds vital importance for disaster risk reduction strategies and proactive socio-economic planning. Governments, humanitarian agencies, and planners are encouraged to integrate this outlook into early warning systems, infrastructure planning, and resource management, especially concerning food and water security, public health measures, and climate-resilient development goals.

WMO and its partners continue to champion collaborative climate services that safeguard communities, protect ecosystems, and support regional economic stability.