2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected to Be Intensely Active, Warns NOAA

Between 1970 and 2021, tropical cyclones were the world’s deadliest and costliest natural disasters, responsible for over 2,000 recorded disasters.

Forecasters at NOAA’s National Weather Service have issued a sobering outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, anticipating significantly above-normal storm activity. According to the official forecast, there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% likelihood of below-normal activity. This projection, underpinned by a 70% confidence level, signals the potential for an intense and dangerous storm season in the months ahead.

Forecast by the Numbers

NOAA anticipates 13 to 19 named storms this year. Out of these, 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 5 that may reach major hurricane status—Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h). These figures compare starkly against the seasonal average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. If realized, 2025 will mark the tenth consecutive season of above-average tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin.

Key Climatic Drivers Behind the Forecast

The predicted increase in hurricane activity stems from several converging atmospheric and oceanic conditions:

• ENSO-Neutral Conditions: The absence of El Niño or La Niña typically reduces disruptive wind shear in the Atlantic, promoting storm formation.

• Warmer-Than-Average Sea Surface Temperatures: Particularly in the Main Development Region (MDR) between West Africa and the Caribbean, these warmer waters provide critical fuel for tropical cyclone development.

• Favorable West African Monsoon: The monsoon often generates strong African Easterly Waves—seeds for many Atlantic hurricanes.

• Low Vertical Wind Shear: Reduced wind shear allows storms to grow vertically without being torn apart, enhancing the likelihood of hurricane development.

Combined, these factors create a highly conducive environment for tropical storm formation and intensification.

Historical Context and Ongoing Impacts

Between 1970 and 2021, tropical cyclones were the world’s deadliest and costliest natural disasters, responsible for over 2,000 recorded disasters. However, improved early warning systems and disaster risk management have significantly reduced the death toll—from over 350,000 in the 1970s to under 20,000 in the last decade. Nevertheless, economic losses continue to soar. The decade from 2010 to 2019 alone witnessed an estimated $573.2 billion in reported damages.

Lessons from 2024: A Reminder of Destruction

Last year’s hurricane season serves as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by these storms. Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category-5 hurricane on record, severely affecting the Caribbean. Hurricanes Helene and Milton left a trail of devastation across parts of the United States, including severe inland flooding and widespread infrastructure damage. These events underscore that the impacts of hurricanes extend far beyond coastal regions.

NOAA’s New Tools and Technologies

To bolster public safety, NOAA has introduced a suite of new products and forecasting capabilities in 2025. These include enhancements to hurricane tracking models, real-time forecasting tools, and improved data visualization for emergency managers and the public.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”

Emphasis on Early Warning and Global Collaboration

The Atlantic hurricane season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, is closely monitored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its Tropical Cyclone Programme. The U.S. National Hurricane Center functions as the WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for the Atlantic.

Early warning action is now being prioritized, particularly in vulnerable small island developing states, under the international Early Warnings For All initiative led by the WMO and partners. This global initiative aims to ensure that everyone on Earth is protected by early warning systems by 2027.

Final Thoughts: Be Prepared, Stay Informed

Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm reinforced the importance of preparedness: “As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities. NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”

With the forecast signaling a potentially dangerous 2025 hurricane season, NOAA urges residents in hurricane-prone areas to finalize emergency plans, review insurance coverage, and stay tuned to official updates throughout the season.