Dust, Heating, and Health: Understanding Termez’s Escalating Air Pollution Crisis

Air quality in Termez is severely compromised by extremely high levels of particulate matter, driven mainly by sand and dust storms, winter household heating, traffic-related dust, and agricultural emissions, with pollution far exceeding national and WHO health limits. The UNEP–Finnish Meteorological Institute study calls for urgent action through cleaner heating, better dust and land management, improved monitoring, and regional cooperation to reduce health risks and protect vulnerable groups.

Prepared by the United Nations Environment Programme together with the Finnish Meteorological Institute and local experts, the report presents the first comprehensive scientific assessment of air quality in Termez, Uzbekistan. Commissioned by the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change, the study uses hourly data from an automatic monitoring station in central Termez, combined with weather observations, satellite information, and local emission inventories. Its aim is straightforward: to understand where air pollution in the city comes from and what can be done to reduce it and protect public health.

Particulate Pollution Far Above Safe Limits

The most striking finding is the severity of particulate matter pollution. Levels of PM10 and PM2.5 exceed national and international health standards throughout the year. In 2024, average PM10 concentrations reached 187 micrograms per cubic metre, while PM2.5 averaged 55 micrograms, well above World Health Organization guideline values and Uzbekistan’s own limits. These figures place Termez among the most polluted cities in the country in terms of particle exposure. By contrast, concentrations of gases such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide appeared relatively low, but data quality problems mean these results should be treated with caution. Particulate data, however, were found to be reliable and form the basis of the report’s conclusions.

Health Risks and Unequal Impacts

Such high particle concentrations pose serious risks to human health. Fine particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and even enter the bloodstream, increasing the likelihood of heart disease, respiratory illness, cancer, and premature death. While no city-specific health estimates are yet available for Termez, national studies show that air pollution causes major economic and welfare losses in Uzbekistan. The impacts are not evenly shared. Women face higher risks due to links between air pollution and reproductive and cardiovascular problems, and because many households still rely on polluting fuels for heating and cooking. Children and older people are also especially vulnerable, making air pollution a critical social as well as environmental issue.

Dust Storms and Winter Heating Drive Pollution

Natural conditions play a major role in Termez’s air quality. The city lies close to arid landscapes that are highly prone to wind erosion. During summer, strong southwesterly winds lift large amounts of dust, sharply increasing particle concentrations. Regional and cross-border dust storms further worsen air quality. At the same time, winter brings a different problem. Cold temperatures and calm winds trap pollution from domestic heating, leading to sharp increases in fine and ultrafine particles. Although natural gas is widely available, evidence suggests that coal, oil products, biomass, or waste fuels are still used during winter, making household heating one of the most important local pollution sources.

What Needs to Change

The report outlines clear priorities for action. Early warning systems and public health advisories are urgently needed to reduce exposure during dust storms, alongside regional cooperation on forecasting and land management measures such as reforestation and soil stabilization. Reducing emissions from winter heating requires phasing out polluting fuels, improving energy efficiency, and strengthening enforcement and public awareness. Traffic also contributes to pollution through road dust resuspension, even though natural gas dominates as a vehicle fuel, highlighting the need for cleaner mobility and better dust control. Agriculture is another concern, as high ammonia emissions contribute to the formation of secondary fine particles. Improved fertilizer and manure management could significantly reduce this source. Finally, the report stresses that better monitoring, stronger quality control, and detailed studies to identify pollution sources are essential for long-term improvement.