WMO: La Niña Fading, El Niño Risk Rising in 2026

According to the latest WMO ENSO Update, there is a 60% probability of neutral conditions during March–May 2026, rising to 70% for April–June.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the recent weak La Niña event is fading, with climate models pointing to a shift toward ENSO-neutral conditions — and a growing possibility of a warming El Niño episode later this year.

According to the latest WMO ENSO Update, there is a 60% probability of neutral conditions during March–May 2026, rising to 70% for April–June. However, by May–July 2026, the likelihood of El Niño strengthens to around 40%, while neutral conditions remain the most probable outcome at 60%.

La Niña Weakens, Neutral Phase Dominates

La Niña — the cooler phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle — is characterised by below-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and typically brings weather patterns opposite to El Niño.

WMO’s Global Producing Centres report that the current La Niña has weakened and is expected to dissipate in the coming months, transitioning into a neutral phase.

Neutral ENSO conditions mean neither El Niño nor La Niña dominates the Pacific climate system, but global weather patterns can still be influenced by other climate drivers.

El Niño Possibility Builds

Although El Niño is not yet the most likely outcome, model projections indicate increasing odds later in 2026.

“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “The most recent El Niño, in 2023–24, was one of the five strongest on record and played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024.”

El Niño refers to the large-scale warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by shifts in atmospheric circulation, wind patterns and rainfall distribution. It often triggers drought in some regions and heavy rainfall or flooding in others.

Spring Predictability Barrier Adds Uncertainty

Forecast uncertainty remains elevated due to the so-called boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known phenomenon that reduces ENSO forecast reliability during Northern Hemisphere spring months.

As a result, longer-range projections — especially beyond mid-year — carry increased uncertainty.

Seasonal Forecasts Critical for Planning

WMO emphasised that ENSO outlooks are essential tools for governments, farmers, energy providers and humanitarian agencies.

“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses,” Saulo said. “They are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management.”

These forecasts also support disaster risk reduction and humanitarian operations by providing early warning of potential climate extremes.

Warming World Context

Naturally occurring ENSO cycles are unfolding against the backdrop of human-induced climate change, which is raising baseline global temperatures and intensifying extreme weather events.

For March–May 2026, the WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates:

• A widespread signal for above-average land surface temperatures globally

• Lingering La Niña-like rainfall patterns in the equatorial Pacific

• Mixed precipitation signals in other regions

The WMO also factors in other major climate drivers — including the North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and Indian Ocean Dipole — when issuing seasonal outlooks.

As climate variability interacts with long-term warming trends, scientists warn that even neutral ENSO phases can occur in an increasingly heated global system, amplifying impacts.