India Braces for Below-Average Monsoon in 2026

For the first time in three years, India is projected to experience below-average monsoon rains in 2026. This poses risks to the agricultural sector and economic growth amid inflation pressures exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. The expected rainfall is 92% of the long-period average, according to government officials.

India is projected to encounter below-average monsoon rains in 2026, marking the first such occurrence in three years. The government made this announcement on Monday, raising concerns over agricultural output and economic expansion as the nation grapples with inflation fueled by the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Monsoons, which typically commence in the southern state of Kerala around June 1 and taper off by mid-September, are expected to reach only 92% of the long-period average this year, according to M. Ravichandran, the secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, during a news conference.

The India Meteorological Department considers normal rainfall to range between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) over the four-month monsoon season.