Depletion of iron ore mines to underpin next decade's prices, Rio Tinto executive says

Rio Tinto expects to invest $13 billion in new mines and equipment to maintain iron ore supply, as the industry faces pressure from mine depletion and cyclone disruptions.

Supply pressure stemming from the depletion of iron ​ore mines built earlier this century, ​such as those in Australia, is set ‌to ​underpin the iron ore market and prices over the coming decade, a Rio Tinto executive said on Wednesday. Rio expects to invest more than $13 ‌billion on new mines, plant and equipment in the Pilbara region during the period from 2025 to 2027 while estimating that 800 million tonnes needs to be added globally across the next decade to ‌maintain supply.

Only 300 million tonnes of that has been committed. "It feels like every year, the ‌demise of iron ore is very much being exaggerated," Matthew Holcz, Rio's iron ore chief executive, told a lunch event at the Melbourne Mining Club.

"While I think the demand story has been reasonably well understood, I really think it's ⁠been on ​the supply side, so disruptions ⁠have been underestimated," he said, pointing to annual cyclones that strike Western Australia's Pilbara coast from November to April. "I think ⁠the rate of depletion is very much underestimated," Holcz added.

"If we look at when the industry really boomed, ​2005, 2010, 2015, a lot of those assets are now 15, 20 years old, and ⁠the scale of the iron ore industry and the amount of resources we're churning through has increased." Today's investment in new ⁠supply ​is only a fraction of that seen for new projects at the start of last decade, Holcz said.

"Marginal costs are a lot higher ... so we think there's good price support around ⁠the levels that we're enjoying in recent years." China's demand is expected to be stable until 2030, ⁠before declining slightly, but the ⁠Global South will step in to bolster demand, particularly India, which Rio expects to be a net iron ore importer around 2035. "That demand story... we ‌think will ‌be quite stable," he said.