Eight Nations, One River: Zambezi’s Climate Strategy Puts Investment and Livelihoods to Test

The Zambezi Basin is shifting toward integrated climate investment that links land restoration and water security with jobs, agriculture, private finance and stronger livelihoods across eight countries. Success will depend on cross-border coordination, bankable projects, inclusive financing and whether investments deliver measurable benefits for communities, women and local businesses.

The Zambezi River Basin is emerging as a major test of whether Africa can turn climate resilience and landscape restoration into a broader economic development strategy. Stretching across eight countries and covering about 1.37 million square kilometres, the basin supports around 51 million people, yet roughly 44% of its residents live below the poverty line and 51% of its land is classified as moderately degraded.

At UNCCD COP17, governments, development institutions, climate finance organisations, regional bodies and civil society representatives called for a shift away from fragmented environmental interventions towards integrated investment in land, water, livelihoods and productive economic activity. The underlying argument is straightforward: degradation, drought and floods are no longer only environmental problems. They increasingly affect agriculture, food security, water supplies, infrastructure, employment and national economies.

For policymakers, this means the Zambezi cannot be managed effectively through isolated national or sectoral programmes. For development partners and investors, it raises another challenge: creating projects that can deliver environmental and social benefits while generating enough economic value to attract sustainable financing.

One River, Eight Countries: Climate Risk Becomes an Economic Challenge

The Zambezi's transboundary character makes climate resilience particularly complicated. Water, agriculture, hydropower, ecosystems, tourism and land use are interconnected, meaning decisions taken in one sector or country can produce consequences elsewhere.

That makes integrated planning increasingly important. Restoration of degraded land could strengthen agricultural productivity and watershed protection, while better water management could support households, farming, ecosystems and economic activity. Investments in agroforestry, climate-resilient agriculture, ecotourism and sustainable value chains could simultaneously create livelihoods and reduce environmental pressure.

PIDACC Zambezi is being presented as one model for this approach. Supported by the African Development Bank and involving the Zambezi Watercourse Commission, or ZAMCOM, alongside other partners, the initiative combines land management, water security, ecosystem restoration and climate-resilient livelihoods within a common investment framework.

The programme's significance lies in treating restoration as part of economic development rather than an isolated conservation expenditure. But its broader success will depend on whether investments produce measurable improvements in productivity, incomes, water security and resilience.

Policymakers Face a Coordination Challenge Across Borders

Financing alone will not solve the basin's problems. Governments must also overcome fragmented policymaking.

Agriculture ministries may prioritise irrigation and food production, energy authorities may focus on hydropower, environmental agencies may seek ecosystem protection, while finance ministries must manage competing demands on limited public resources. Those objectives can complement one another, but they can also collide.

The proposed Water-Energy-Food-Environment approach attempts to manage these trade-offs by assessing projects across sectors rather than individually. Another initiative, the Global Environment Facility-financed "Strengthening Zambezi River Basin Management towards Climate Resilience and Ecosystem Health" project, is expected to support integrated planning, healthier ecosystems and stronger cooperation among countries sharing the river.

For policymakers, the real test will be converting regional cooperation into national budgets, regulations and investment decisions.

This becomes particularly important when costs and benefits are unevenly distributed. Infrastructure that benefits one country or sector may affect water availability or ecosystems elsewhere. Governments will therefore need credible mechanisms for sharing information, coordinating investments and resolving competing priorities.

Climate Finance Meets the Bankability Test

The emerging strategy could also open opportunities for private capital.

African Development Bank Division Manager for Agricultural Research, Production and Sustainability Laouali Garba argued at COP17 that projects combining restoration with food production, employment, community resilience and ecotourism stand a stronger chance of attracting financing than narrowly designed environmental projects.

Blended finance could be crucial. Combining government resources, grants, concessional funding, climate finance and development partner support can reduce risks that commercial investors may otherwise be unwilling to accept.

Participants also highlighted public-private partnerships, guarantees, risk-sharing mechanisms and affordable SME credit as tools for supporting agroforestry, restoration businesses and sustainable value chains.

But attracting investors will require more than attaching commercial components to environmental projects. Restoration investments can have long payback periods, uncertain revenue streams and substantial climate exposure. Some benefits, healthier ecosystems, reduced erosion or improved resilience, provide significant public value without generating direct commercial returns.

Development finance institutions and governments will therefore have to distinguish between genuinely bankable projects and essential public investments that will continue to require concessional or grant financing.

Communities Must See the Returns, Not Just the Investment

The ultimate measure of success will be what happens to communities living across the basin.

Restoration programmes could improve water security, support agricultural production, generate employment and create opportunities for SMEs. But those benefits will depend on who receives finance, owns productive assets and participates in decisions.

Prof. Hesphina Rukato of the Centre for African Development Solutions stressed at COP17 that gender-responsive investment must account for women's access to land, water, finance, equipment and decision-making power.

This highlights a wider risk. Large climate programmes can mobilise impressive financing without necessarily changing economic conditions for vulnerable households. Local businesses may also struggle to participate if they cannot access affordable credit or compete with larger contractors.

Governments and development partners will consequently need to measure more than hectares restored or money committed. Employment created, household incomes, SME participation, women's access to productive assets, water reliability and resilience to climate shocks will provide a clearer picture of whether investment is translating into development.

The Zambezi agenda now connects PIDACC Zambezi, the Climate Investment Funds-backed Zambezi Region Nature, People and Climate Investment Plan, the GEF-supported basin management project and the Southern African Great Green Wall Initiative.

The next challenge is execution. Policymakers and investors will need to watch whether these initiatives complement rather than duplicate one another, whether private finance reaches viable projects, and whether communities gain tangible economic opportunities.

For the Zambezi Basin, the central question is no longer simply how to restore degraded landscapes. It is whether eight countries can turn shared environmental vulnerability into coordinated investment that protects ecosystems while strengthening economies and livelihoods. The answer will depend less on new commitments than on financing, implementation, regional cooperation and measurable results on the ground.