WMO Urges Early Humanitarian Action as El Niño Threatens Floods, Drought and Extreme Heat

Southeast Asia faces heat, rainfall shortages, wildfires and smoke hazards, and parts of western South America have already experienced severe flooding, as drought risks rise across parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon.

Humanitarian organizations need to prepare for an El Niño that could exceed the strength captured by monitoring charts used over the past four decades, according to the World Meteorological Organization's latest seasonal outlook, which projects a peak towards the end of the year and impacts lasting beyond it.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have called for urgent, coordinated action before the worst effects arrive, drawing on weather, climate and water information to protect communities exposed to floods, drought and extreme heat.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said scientific forecasts and early warnings provide the means to save lives and protect livelihoods, stressing that a powerful El Niño does not have to become a humanitarian disaster if governments and aid organizations act decisively for the most vulnerable.

Regional forecasts reveal a narrowing window to prepare

The outlook issued on 21 October 2026 identifies heightened risks of heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of East Africa during the October–December rainy season, with drier conditions expected in Southern Africa from November threatening crops, water supplies and livelihoods.

Southeast Asia faces heat, rainfall shortages, wildfires and smoke hazards, and parts of western South America have already experienced severe flooding, as drought risks rise across parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon.

Extreme events are already occurring and are expected to multiply and trigger further disruptions as El Niño strengthens, placing additional pressure on refugees, displaced people and conflict-affected communities whose housing, water, sanitation and health services are already stretched.

Saulo warned that the opportunity to prepare remains open in many regions but will not last indefinitely, making early decisions essential to preventing dangerous weather from causing deaths and humanitarian emergencies. Seasonal outlooks describe regional tendencies rather than individual events, so humanitarian teams need national and regional forecasts, supported by expert interpretation, to determine where and when protective action is needed.

Turning weather information into humanitarian decisions

The WMO Coordination Mechanism (WCM), whose work featured at a side event during the fourth session of WMO's Commission for Weather, Climate, Hydrological, Marine and Related Environmental Services and Applications (SERCOM-4), helps humanitarian organizations translate forecasts into practical decisions.

As a core part of the Early Warnings for All initiative, WCM gathers authoritative information from WMO Members and Centres, provides timely expert advice for crisis-prone and conflict-affected regions, and develops tailored products with UN and humanitarian agencies to support preparedness, early action and response.

Its services include Global and Regional HydroMet Weekly scans, monthly climate briefings and scans, and capacity building for humanitarian staff, with previous support covering preparations for Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Mocha in Myanmar and Bangladesh in 2023 and operations after Myanmar's 2025 earthquake.

Yi Wang, WMO's Chief of Severe Weather Services and WCM lead, said the mechanism has delivered more than 750 tailored products since 2022 and is now working with partners on El Niño preparedness, helping organizations turn reliable information into earlier action.

Opening the event, Véronique Bouchet, Senior Director of WMO's Department of Sciences, Services and Capacity Development, stressed that changing hazards hit displaced and crisis-affected communities hardest, making services designed around humanitarian planning and operational needs especially important.

SERCOM President Ian Lisk said information alone cannot ensure action, explaining that services must reflect how users make decisions and draw on the scientific expertise of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and WMO Centres.

Wider participation and resources are needed

Marian Schilperoord, Deputy Director of UNHCR's Division of Emergency and Programme Support, and John Long, Head of OCHA's Emergency Response Preparedness Unit, emphasized stronger cooperation with WMO and the importance of national services and WMO Centres as trusted forecasting authorities.

Lisk called for more WMO Members to participate, continued user involvement and sufficient resources and capacity to expand WCM, encouraging national services to strengthen connections between authoritative forecasts, anticipatory action and crisis response.

Osvaldo Moraes, Chair of the Standing Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Warning Services, closed by stressing the need for adequate disaster risk reduction services, reinforcing the call for sustained investment and collaboration.

Around 50 participants attended the event, moderated by Marzia Santini, Chair of the Advisory Group on WCM and Lead of the European Crisis Management Laboratory at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, with a poster session bringing WCM staff, WMO Members and Centres, and humanitarian partners together to exchange experience across hazards and forecasting timescales.