Current El Niño could bring unprecedented Pacific warming, peaking in late 2026, WMO warns

The forecast peak would be far beyond that threshold and, according to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, “literally off the monitoring charts” used over the past four decades.

The World Meteorological Organization's Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasts tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures could reach 3.8°C above average from November 2026 to January 2027. The region is at the centre of El Niño, a climate pattern that shifts temperature and rainfall across the world.

WMO declares El Niño when sea surface temperatures in this Pacific region are at least 0.5°C above average. The forecast peak would be far beyond that threshold and, according to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, "literally off the monitoring charts" used over the past four decades.

Saulo said the event is expected to peak toward the end of 2026, with effects continuing long after the peak. Extreme weather is already being observed, and WMO expects such events to multiply and cascade as El Niño strengthens.

A powerful event raises risks across regions

A very strong El Niño can disrupt normal temperature and rainfall patterns, bringing drought to some places, heavy rain and flooding to others, and hotter conditions across large parts of the world. WMO has warned that the developing event could deepen existing threats to communities, agriculture and water supplies.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Tom Fletcher, the UN's Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Saulo said the event need not lead to a humanitarian disaster. She pointed to science, forecasts and early warning systems as tools that can save lives and protect livelihoods, and called for decisive action to reach vulnerable communities.

WMO says the window to prepare remains open in many regions, but will not stay open indefinitely. The organization is providing science-based information to help governments and humanitarian organizations anticipate risks, prepare their operations and protect people facing the greatest danger.

Seasonal outlook points to uneven impacts

In East Africa, wetter-than-normal conditions are more likely in parts of the region during the October–December rainy season, raising concerns about heavy rain and flooding. Southern Africa faces greater risk of drier conditions from November, the usual start of its rainy season, with possible effects on crops, water availability and livelihoods.

Southeast Asia is forecast to face warmer conditions and rainfall deficits that could increase heat exposure and pressure agriculture and water supplies. The region is also seeing growing wildfire and smoke-haze risks.

The outlook points to increased rainfall in the northwestern United States and southern parts of western South America, with above-normal precipitation also expected across North America and the northern Caribbean. Drought risk is higher in parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon.

WMO stresses that these are seasonal outlooks, not predictions of specific weather events. Regional and national forecasts will be needed to identify where and when action is required, giving authorities more precise information as conditions develop.