India Exim Bank Projects Optimistic Growth in Exports for FY26

Export-Import Bank of India forecasts a growth in merchandise exports to USD 108.1 billion and non-oil exports to USD 92.1 billion for the second quarter of FY26. This growth is attributed to buoyant manufacturing activity, trade negotiations, and expansionary monetary policy. However, risks include tariff increase and geopolitical tensions.

The Export-Import Bank of India anticipates robust growth in the nation's exports for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. Total merchandise exports are predicted to reach USD 108.1 billion, marking a 4.5 percent increase, while non-oil exports are expected to rise by 5.2 percent, totaling USD 92.1 billion.

India Exim Bank attributes this positive outlook to the base effect and a sustained surge in manufacturing activity, bolstered by increased capacity utilization and favorable financial conditions. Additionally, promising trade negotiations and an expansionary monetary policy are seen as catalysts for this growth.

Nonetheless, potential obstacles include escalating tariffs, global trade policy uncertainty, increasing geo-economic fragmentation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The forecasts are released quarterly, with the next update scheduled for November 2025, covering the third quarter of fiscal year 2026.

(With inputs from agencies.)