India's Wholesale Inflation Rebounds, Turning Positive in August 2025

India's wholesale inflation likely turned positive at 0.45% in August 2025, reversing a contraction from July, driven by increases in key sectors like food and fuel. This rebound follows a base effect fade from 2024, with subsequent growth expected despite global and domestic economic uncertainties.

India's wholesale inflation is projected to have reversed its declining trend, marking a positive turn of 0.45% in August 2025 from a contraction of -0.58% in July. This rebound is attributed to gains in food, fuel, and core segments, according to Union Bank of India (UBI) reports.

The August improvement in the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) came as the impact of a high base faded. In August 2024, the WPI stood at 1.25%, compared to 2.10% in July 2024, indicating a swing back to growth despite the recent dip in July 2025.

Interestingly, food inflation surged back to positive numbers, expected to reach a three-month high of 0.21% in August from -2.14% in July. Meanwhile, core inflation gained momentum, rising to 1.69% from 1.20%, and fuel inflation also showed slight improvement. While domestic factors are crucial, external elements, including fluctuating global commodity prices and geopolitical tensions, will play a role in shaping future trends.

The report cautions about potential volatility due to changing trade scenarios and domestic weather-related disruptions, but suggests that upcoming GST reforms could ease wholesale inflation pressures starting in October 2025.

(With inputs from agencies.)