Global Mineral Supply Chains: Scrutiny and Strategic Shifts

The International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 warns of persistent supply deficits and highlights the vulnerabilities created by concentrated supply chains. The report emphasizes the need for diversified and resilient supply chains amidst tightening mineral supplies and rising prices driven by geopolitical influences and export restrictions.

Global mineral supply chains are under increased scrutiny as concerns shift from availability to the vulnerabilities posed by highly concentrated processing and refining networks. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 highlights persistent supply deficits, notably for copper and lithium, expected to last until 2035.

The report emphasizes a shift in focus among governments. While securing sufficient mineral supplies remains crucial, attention is now more on the resilience and security of these supply chains amidst geopolitical complexities. Despite new projects, challenges in meeting demand persist, underscoring the need for diversification.

Mineral prices have surged amid tightened supply and recent export restrictions, with lithium prices doubling and cobalt increasing by 130% due to constraints in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The report underscores the impact of concentrated refining capacities, with China and Indonesia leading expansions, calling for a strategic rethink in mineral supply chain strategies.