Rouble Holds Steady Ahead of Central Bank's Rate Decision

The rouble traded steadily ahead of the Russian central bank’s interest rate decision and President Putin’s speech at the St Petersburg investment forum. Analysts predict a rate hold, though some foresee a possible hike due to high inflation. Market reactions included stable oil prices and rising stock indexes.

The rouble traded steady on Friday ahead of the central bank's meeting to set interest rates and before President Vladimir Putin speaks at Russia's premier investment forum in St Petersburg. At 0744 GMT, the rouble was 0.1% weaker against the dollar at 88.95 and had lost 0.1% to trade at 96.86 versus the euro. It shed 0.2% against the yuan to 12.25.

Most analysts polled by Reuters forecast a rate hold at 16%, although a quarter predicted a hike to 17% as inflation remains stubbornly high. Higher rates support the Russian currency by making rouble savings more attractive. The central bank will announce its rate decision at 1030 GMT and Governor Elvira Nabiullina will hold a news conference at 1400 GMT, slightly later than usual so as to avoid clashing with Putin's appearance at the St Petersburg economic forum.

The head of Russian state bank VTB, Andrei Kostin, forecast a 100-basis-point hike on Thursday, adjusting his prediction after listening to the central bank chief's comments on inflation. Nabiullina had barely touched on monetary policy in her forum appearance, focusing more on Russia's role on the global stage.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 0.1% at $79.83 a barrel. Russian stock indexes were higher.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 0.3% to 1,135.1 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.4% higher at 3,204.5 points. Sinara Investment Bank analysts said the 100-basis-point rate hike already seemed to have been reflected in Russian stock prices.

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