Rouble's Rollercoaster: Navigating Global Pressures

The Russian rouble remains stable but close to crucial thresholds against the dollar and euro, affected by global dollar strength and Western sanctions. With trade shifting to yuan and OTC markets, exchange rate volatility has increased as global tensions and oil prices impact economic dynamics.

The Russian rouble held its ground against major currencies on Tuesday, maintaining the official exchange rate just below the critical 100-rouble mark against the U.S. dollar. By early trading, LSEG data showed the rouble down marginally against the dollar and euro.

Recently, the global dollar rally has been the primary force driving the rouble's weakness, though a pause in profit-taking temporarily halted its ascent. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil remained steady after a recent rise, as market caution continued amid fears of increased conflict in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Sanctions affecting the Moscow Exchange and its clearing agent shifted dollar and euro trades to over-the-counter markets, complicating price transparency and exacerbating rouble volatility. The central bank's exchange rate, based on OTC data, now dictates market movements.

(With inputs from agencies.)