Born into Conflict: The Lasting Impact of War on Human Capital Development

The study examines how prenatal exposure to war-related stress in Afghanistan negatively impacts cognitive development, health, and economic outcomes later in life. It highlights the urgent need for maternal health interventions and policy measures to mitigate these long-term consequences.


CoE-EDP, VisionRICoE-EDP, VisionRI | Updated: 03-02-2025 16:08 IST | Created: 03-02-2025 16:08 IST
Born into Conflict: The Lasting Impact of War on Human Capital Development
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A study by Erkmen G. Aslim, Rafiuddin Najam, and Erdal Tekin, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), investigates the long-term impact of prenatal exposure to war-related stress in Afghanistan. The study examines how the country's decades-long conflicts have shaped human capital development, conducted with contributions from researchers affiliated with George Mason University, Georgia State University, and the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). By focusing on individuals exposed to war conditions while in the womb, the study sheds light on war’s profound and often overlooked intergenerational effects. Using a combination of demographic, health, and conflict data, the research presents compelling evidence that war’s consequences extend far beyond immediate casualties, affecting cognitive, health, and economic outcomes well into adulthood.

A Data-Driven Approach to Measuring Conflict Exposure

To quantify the effects of war exposure in utero, the researchers use a quasi-experimental design, comparing birth cohorts exposed to war conditions with those who were not. By cross-referencing conflict intensity data with demographic surveys, the study effectively isolates the impact of war-related stress during pregnancy from broader economic and social adversities. The study’s methodological rigor ensures that the findings reflect genuine causal effects rather than coincidental correlations. One of the key mechanisms examined is maternal stress, which can disrupt fetal development through hormonal imbalances, inadequate nutrition, and poor access to healthcare. These prenatal stressors, compounded by displacement, food shortages, and exposure to violence, create developmental setbacks that persist into adulthood.

The Cognitive and Educational Costs of War

One of the study's most striking findings is the impact of prenatal war exposure on cognitive and educational outcomes. Individuals exposed to war in the womb display significantly lower cognitive abilities, which manifest in reduced school attendance and poor academic performance. Research in developmental neuroscience suggests that exposure to extreme stress hormones during fetal development can disrupt brain function, particularly in areas linked to memory, attention, and problem-solving. These deficits translate into lower literacy levels and a diminished likelihood of pursuing higher education, further entrenching socio-economic inequalities. In a country where education serves as a critical pathway to social mobility, the long-term consequences of war-induced cognitive impairment can be particularly devastating. Afghanistan’s fragile education system struggles to accommodate these learning deficiencies, exacerbating the gap between war-affected individuals and their peers.

Health Challenges That Begin Before Birth

Beyond cognitive impairments, the study highlights significant health consequences for those exposed to war in utero. The data reveals a strong correlation between prenatal war exposure and adverse birth outcomes, including lower birth weights, stunted growth, and higher infant mortality rates. Malnutrition during pregnancy, combined with maternal stress and inadequate access to medical care, contributes to these negative outcomes. These early-life health disadvantages often persist into adulthood, increasing susceptibility to chronic illnesses, weakened immune responses, and reduced physical endurance. Such impairments affect an individual’s long-term productivity and economic potential, making it more difficult to escape poverty. The study reinforces the idea that even short-term exposure to extreme hardship in the prenatal phase can have lifelong repercussions, influencing everything from physical well-being to overall life expectancy.

The Economic Fallout of War-Induced Disadvantages

The consequences of prenatal war exposure extend into adulthood, particularly in terms of employment and income. Individuals affected by these early-life adversities tend to have lower earnings and struggle with job stability, making them more vulnerable to poverty. The study shows that war exposure during fetal development significantly reduces the likelihood of completing higher education, which in turn limits access to skilled employment opportunities. The economic burden of these lost opportunities is not just borne by individuals but also by society as a whole. With a large segment of the population experiencing reduced productivity due to war-induced disadvantages, Afghanistan’s long-term economic growth prospects are significantly hindered. These findings highlight how conflict’s hidden costs extend beyond infrastructure destruction and battlefield casualties, shaping national development trajectories for generations.

Building Resilience Through Policy Interventions

The paper’s findings underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions to mitigate the effects of war exposure on human capital. The authors advocate for improved maternal healthcare, including prenatal nutrition programs, stress reduction strategies, and increased access to medical facilities in conflict-affected regions. Additionally, postnatal interventions such as early childhood education and health monitoring programs can help counteract the developmental setbacks caused by prenatal war exposure. By investing in these initiatives, governments and humanitarian organizations can help break the cycle of war-induced poverty and human capital loss, fostering resilience among future generations.

Beyond Afghanistan, the study has global relevance, offering valuable insights into the long-term effects of conflict in war-torn regions worldwide. The findings serve as a stark reminder that war’s devastation does not end when the fighting stops. The silent yet profound impact on individuals exposed to war before birth underscores the need for stronger global commitments to maternal and child health protection in conflict zones. By recognizing and addressing these long-term consequences, policymakers can take meaningful steps toward rebuilding societies in the aftermath of war.

By providing empirical evidence on the intersection of war and human capital, the study contributes to academic discourse on developmental economics and conflict studies. Its data-driven approach reinforces the necessity of incorporating prenatal health into broader discussions on post-conflict recovery and economic rebuilding. As nations emerging from war attempt to stabilize their economies, understanding the deep-rooted human capital losses they face is crucial for designing effective policies. The paper ultimately presents a compelling case for acknowledging war as more than a temporary disruption—it is a force that shapes generations, demanding urgent intervention to mitigate its enduring impact.

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