Made in Africa, Trusted in Africa? The Next Vaccine Challenge

Africa's ambition to build domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity is often discussed in terms of factories, technology transfer, financing and regulation. A new study from Lagos, Nigeria, adds another variable that may prove just as decisive: whether people are actually willing to receive vaccines made at home.

The study, "Willingness to Accept a Locally Manufactured COVID-19 Vaccine in Lagos, Nigeria: A Cross-Sectional Survey and Demographic Predictors," published in the MDPI journal COVID, was authored by Taiwo Opeyemi Aremu, Olihe Nnenna Okoro, Caroline Gaither, S. Bruce Benson, Drissa M. Toure and Jon C. Schommer. It examines whether adults in Lagos would accept a COVID-19 vaccine manufactured in Nigeria and which demographic factors are associated with that willingness.

About 75% of respondents said they would accept a Nigerian-made COVID-19 vaccine. However, the research also shows that acceptance is uneven, with important differences by age and religion. The broader lesson is that vaccine self-reliance cannot be built through production capacity alone. It also requires regulatory credibility, public confidence and communication strategies capable of converting stated willingness into real-world uptake.

Demand Could Be Nigeria's Hidden Manufacturing Advantage

The study surveyed adults in Lagos between September 7 and 16, 2024, using questionnaires administered in four major open-air markets: Balogun, Yaba, Mushin and Oyingbo. Of 388 consenting participants, 335 provided complete data for the main analysis. The final sample was predominantly female, with the largest age groups between 25 and 44 years.

Among those included in the analysis, 254 people, or 75.8%, said they would accept a COVID-19 vaccine manufactured in Nigeria. By comparison, 55.8% reported that they had previously received a foreign-produced COVID-19 vaccine.

Africa's vaccine-manufacturing debate has largely focused on the supply side. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the risks of import dependence when global production and distribution were concentrated in a limited number of countries and manufacturers. Nigeria, like many low- and middle-income countries, experienced supply delays and disruption during the pandemic.

However, manufacturing capacity is only sustainable if there is demand. A vaccine plant may have the technology, workforce and financing to produce doses, yet still struggle commercially if citizens distrust locally made products or if governments cannot maintain predictable purchasing.

The Lagos findings offer tentative evidence of what might be called demand-side readiness, suggesting that local production does not automatically face a public confidence penalty. This is potentially significant for Nigeria and other African countries seeking to reduce dependence on imports. Local pharmaceutical manufacturing could contribute not only to health security but also to industrial development, technology acquisition and supply-chain resilience. However, the study also makes clear that demand cannot be assumed simply because a product is produced domestically.

Young Adults Emerge as the Critical Confidence Gap

Age was one of the strongest predictors of willingness. Compared with respondents aged 18–24, adults aged 45–54 had 6.54 times higher adjusted odds of accepting a locally manufactured vaccine, while those aged 55–64 had 4.97 times higher odds. The study also identified a statistically significant trend toward higher willingness with increasing age.

The authors suggest several possible explanations. Older adults may perceive greater personal risk from COVID-19 and therefore see vaccination as more valuable. Younger adults, by contrast, may feel less vulnerable to severe illness, face opportunity costs associated with vaccination or encounter competing information through social media and peer networks.

This has practical implications well beyond COVID-19. If Nigeria develops broader domestic vaccine capacity, younger populations will be central to the long-term viability of local products. Nigeria's demographic structure means that confidence among young adults is not a marginal issue; it is potentially a major market and public-health consideration.

The study proposes youth-focused digital communication, including short videos explaining safety and quality oversight, partnerships with universities and vocational institutions, peer ambassadors and social-media engagement through platforms such as WhatsApp and Instagram.

The more important policy insight is that communication about locally manufactured vaccines should not begin only when doses are ready for deployment. Confidence-building needs to be treated as part of the manufacturing ecosystem itself. If trust is left until rollout, governments risk discovering too late that production capacity and social acceptance have developed on different timelines.

Faith, Regulation and Trust Will Shape the Market for Local Vaccines

The study also found an association between religious affiliation and willingness. Christian respondents had lower adjusted odds of acceptance than Muslim respondents, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.41. The authors are careful not to interpret this as evidence that any faith group is inherently hesitant. Religious affiliation may reflect broader differences in trusted messengers, institutional confidence, community networks and exposure to particular narratives about vaccination.

Treating religious identity itself as the problem could stigmatize communities and undermine trust. Treating faith institutions as partners, however, could strengthen public-health communication.

Nigeria's experience with immunization has already demonstrated the importance of engaging religious and community leaders. The study argues that churches, mosques and other trusted institutions could help communicate information about manufacturing quality, vaccine safety, regulatory approval and post-market surveillance.

This points to a larger governance issue. For a Nigerian-made vaccine to succeed, citizens must trust not only the vaccine but also the institutions guaranteeing its quality. The study emphasizes that visible and credible regulatory oversight will be central to acceptance, meaning confidence in domestic production will likely depend on whether people believe that Nigerian-made products meet rigorous standards, are independently evaluated and continue to be monitored after approval.

For policymakers and investors, this creates an important connection between industrial policy and institution-building. Manufacturing plants are tangible assets, but regulatory credibility is equally important economic infrastructure.

Promising Evidence, but Nigeria Still Needs a National Picture

The study asks a question that is often overlooked in discussions of African vaccine sovereignty. However, its findings should not be treated as nationally representative.

The researchers used a non-probability, market-based sample, meaning participants were recruited from people visiting four Lagos markets rather than selected randomly from the wider population. Rural residents, people who do not visit major markets and populations outside Lagos may have very different attitudes.

The questionnaire was also administered only in English, potentially underrepresenting people with lower English proficiency or literacy. In addition, the study measures stated willingness, not actual behavior. People who say they would accept a vaccine may respond differently when faced with a real vaccination decision involving cost, convenience, side effects or changing perceptions of disease risk.

The study also did not directly measure several factors that could be crucial to local-vaccine acceptance, including trust in Nigerian manufacturing quality, confidence in regulators, safety concerns, previous booster experience and exposure to misinformation.

These gaps define the next research agenda. Future studies should use larger probability-based samples across Nigerian states, include local languages and directly measure trust, risk perception, misinformation and attitudes toward domestic pharmaceutical production. The authors also recommend mixed-methods research to understand how younger adults and faith communities interpret the idea of a "locally manufactured" vaccine, as well as implementation studies testing whether targeted messaging actually changes behavior.

The strategic importance extends beyond COVID-19. Nigeria's long-term vaccine ambition is ultimately about reducing vulnerability to future outbreaks while creating a stronger domestic health-industrial base.