Probe reveals ignored warnings before deadly Jagersfontein dam collapse

The findings were formally released on Friday, 28 November 2025, during a community briefing led by Water and Sanitation Deputy Ministers David Mahlobo and Sello Seitlholo.

The long-awaited technical investigation into the catastrophic failure of the Jagersfontein Fine Tailings Storage Facility (FTSF) has revealed that the owner, Jagersfontein Development (Pty) Ltd, may have knowingly allowed the dam to continue operating despite early warning signs of structural instability along its southern wall.

The findings were formally released on Friday, 28 November 2025, during a community briefing led by Water and Sanitation Deputy Ministers David Mahlobo and Sello Seitlholo. The presentation took place more than three years after the dam’s collapse on 11 September 2022 — a disaster that killed two people, displaced families, destroyed homes and public infrastructure, and polluted surrounding land and water resources. One person remains missing and is presumed dead.

Also present at the briefing were Free State Premier Maqueen Letsoha-Mathae and Kopanong Local Municipality Mayor Xolani Tseletsele, who joined the delegation in addressing affected residents at Mayibuye Community Hall.

Early Warning Signs Ignored

The independent technical investigation, conducted by experts from the University of Pretoria and the University of the Witwatersrand, confirmed that signs of instability were identified as early as 2019. Instead of halting operations or commissioning a detailed redesign, the company attempted to stabilise the slope using large volumes of fill material. Researchers concluded that these efforts were ineffective and may have worsened the structural load.

Despite the risks, the dam continued to be raised and more tailings material was deposited.

Major Design and Regulatory Failures

The report highlighted several serious engineering and compliance shortcomings, including:

• The dam was constructed and raised using only conceptual designs, without finalised or verified engineering plans.

• No professional engineer oversaw the construction process, violating established safety and regulatory requirements.

• A portion of the southern wall was built on a structurally weak, pre-existing dump, forming an unstable foundation.

• Monitoring systems and emergency protocols were inadequate, making early detection of failure unlikely.

When the breach occurred, approximately 5.9 million cubic metres of fine tailings surged downstream, destroying homes, livestock, farmland, power lines, roads, and natural habitats.

Government Response and Future Steps

Addressing residents, Deputy Minister Mahlobo voiced frustration at the company’s non-compliance and said closure of the mine would have been justified. However, he acknowledged that the mine is also a significant employer in the region, creating a dilemma for authorities.

“It is a fine balancing act — saving jobs and saving lives,” Mahlobo said.

The Department of Water and Sanitation confirmed that enforcement measures, rehabilitation plans, and long-term monitoring systems are being reviewed. The government has also pledged continued support to displaced families and those still recovering from the disaster.

A full copy of the investigation report is available on the Department of Water and Sanitation’s official website.