INCOIS Issues First Special El Niño Bulletin for Maritime Sector

INCOIS warned that warmer ocean conditions may trigger more frequent marine heat waves and increase the risk of coral reef bleaching across parts of the northern Indian Ocean.

The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has launched a specialised El Niño bulletin to help maritime stakeholders prepare for the possible impacts of the developing climate phenomenon on India's coastal and marine sectors. The first edition of the bulletin was released on 22 June 2026 by Member of Parliament Konda Vishweshwar Reddy during an event held at the INCOIS campus.

According to the bulletin, the ongoing El Niño event is continuing to strengthen and is expected to reach its peak between November 2026 and January 2027. Scientists project that sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean will remain above normal levels until at least April or May 2027. The prolonged warming is expected to place significant stress on marine ecosystems across both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, particularly during the spring months of March to May next year.

Fisheries and Marine Life Could Face Challenges

INCOIS warned that warmer ocean conditions may trigger more frequent marine heat waves and increase the risk of coral reef bleaching across parts of the northern Indian Ocean. The changing marine environment could also affect fish populations, especially commercially important species such as sardines and mackerel. Researchers believe fish stocks may migrate to cooler waters or experience reduced recruitment, which could lead to lower catches for fishing communities.

Scientists also noted that environmental changes associated with El Niño may affect fish growth, resulting in smaller fish sizes than normally expected. The bulletin aims to provide timely information to fisheries, shipping operators, coastal authorities and other maritime stakeholders who rely on ocean conditions for planning and operations.

Mixed Outlook for India's Coastline and Marine Operations

The report suggests that sea conditions in the Bay of Bengal are likely to remain rough during the monsoon season. This could increase the risk of coastal erosion and flooding along parts of India's eastern coastline. On the western side of the country, conditions are expected to be more favourable. The Arabian Sea is likely to experience calmer-than-normal sea states, potentially creating longer operational windows for marine industries, shipping activities and offshore operations.

INCOIS also indicated that the west coast may experience comparatively lower levels of coastal erosion and inundation during the current monsoon season. The agency has advised all maritime operators, fishermen, coastal managers and other stakeholders to regularly monitor alerts, warnings and advisories issued by INCOIS as ocean conditions continue to evolve.

The next specialised El Niño bulletin is scheduled for release in the second week of July 2026 and will provide updated assessments of the phenomenon's impact on India's maritime sector.