Can Clean Energy Survive a Crisis? Household Fuel Choices in Kyrgyzstan Post-COVID

A study by the Asian Development Bank and Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University found that income decline during COVID-19 led low-income households in Kyrgyzstan to reduce energy use or switch to cheaper, dirtier fuels. The findings highlight the risk of energy poverty and setbacks in clean energy transition without targeted policy support.

In a detailed and timely study published by the Asian Development Bank in collaboration with Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, researchers Kamalbek Karymshakov and Dina Azhgaliyeva explore how income declines during the COVID-19 pandemic altered household energy consumption patterns in the Kyrgyz Republic. Using household-level data from the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey (KIHS) from 2019 to 2021, the study investigates how falling incomes influenced the fuel choices of Kyrgyz households and the broader implications for energy transition. The Kyrgyz Republic, a lower-middle-income country in Central Asia, is known for its long, cold winters and widespread reliance on solid fuels such as coal and biomass for heating and cooking. The onset of the pandemic exacerbated economic hardships, pushing the poverty rate up from 20.1% in 2019 to 33.3% in 2021. Against this backdrop, the researchers examine whether income shocks nudged households toward cheaper, often dirtier fuels or spurred a shift toward cleaner alternatives like electricity and gas.

When Income Falls, Energy Choices Shift

The findings reveal a complex and layered response to income shocks, one that is shaped heavily by a household’s existing economic position. Among the poorest households, the bottom 25% by income, the falling income led to a reduction in coal consumption and a decrease in total per capita energy use. These households likely responded by cutting back on fuel usage altogether or turning to informal and freely available energy sources such as wood, brush, or dung. This behavior, while necessary for survival, hints at deepening energy poverty and poses risks to health and well-being, especially during harsh winter months. In contrast, the second income quartile responded differently. These households increased their use of coal in response to income decline, likely as a more affordable alternative to other heating and cooking fuels. This coping mechanism reflects a practical but potentially regressive adaptation, choosing cost over cleanliness.

Middle-Income Households Lean Toward Electricity

Interestingly, in the third income quartile, households responded to income declines by reducing coal consumption and increasing their reliance on electricity. This shift might be explained by greater infrastructure access or slightly better financial stability, enabling these households to continue using modern fuels despite economic strain. The data shows that electricity became a fallback option, particularly as lockdowns extended time spent indoors and amplified household energy needs. This group’s behavior suggests that some middle-income households were still able to prioritize cleaner energy, highlighting the role that affordability and accessibility play in household decisions. However, it's also a reminder that electricity use alone does not guarantee a full transition to sustainable energy unless supported by a consistent supply and affordable tariffs.

Wealth Doesn’t Always Mean Clean Energy

Perhaps more surprising were the findings from the highest income quartile. Despite their relative financial comfort, households in this group increased consumption of biomass and gas in response to income decline. This seems counterintuitive at first glance but may reflect changing household routines during the pandemic, such as more home cooking and heating. It may also indicate that infrastructure and location still matter—even wealthier households may rely on traditional fuels if cleaner alternatives are not available or convenient. This pattern underscores the limitations of the “energy ladder” hypothesis, which assumes a linear progression from dirty to clean fuels as income rises. In reality, behavior can reverse during crises, and the availability of fuels can influence choice just as much as income.

Gender and Children Matter in Energy Use

The study also sheds light on how household characteristics shape energy choices. Female-headed households were more likely to use electricity and less likely to rely on biomass, aligning with global trends that suggest women prioritize cleaner fuels due to health, safety, and time-saving considerations. Households with young children showed increased electricity consumption, possibly reflecting higher demands for indoor comfort and care during lockdowns. Surprisingly, frequent electricity outages common in Kyrgyzstan did not appear to have a statistically significant effect on energy consumption patterns over the short period studied, though the authors caution that longer-term data would likely offer more clarity on this point.

Energy Transition at Risk Without Policy Support

One of the key conclusions of the research is that income shocks, such as those brought on by the pandemic, can pose a serious risk to clean energy transitions. The shift toward cheaper, more polluting fuels among households that experienced income losses demonstrates how economic stress can undercut sustainability goals. The researchers emphasize the need for targeted government support, particularly for low-income households during winter, to prevent a slide into energy poverty. With electricity tariffs rising since 2023, the urgency of this intervention has only increased. Policymakers must not only focus on expanding access to modern fuels but also ensure their affordability and reliability. Income stability and financial support mechanisms are critical to enable households to maintain cleaner energy consumption, especially in times of economic turbulence.

In sum, the study offers a nuanced and empirically grounded view of how income dynamics affect energy decisions at the household level. It highlights the need for comprehensive energy policies that consider not just infrastructure and supply, but also social safety nets and behavioral resilience. The Kyrgyz Republic’s experience stands as both a warning and a guidepost for other developing nations navigating the delicate balance between economic hardship and sustainable energy transition.