How Internet and Mobile Phones Are Shaping Africa’s Occupational Future

An IMF study finds that digitalization through internet access and mobile phone use significantly boosts intergenerational occupational mobility in Africa. The impact is strongest in countries with strong institutions and supportive ICT policies.

A groundbreaking working paper from the International Monetary Fund’s African Department, authored by Mame Astou Diouf, Boileau Yeyinou Loko, and Rasmane Ouedraogo, sets out to explore a transformative idea: can digitalization drive intergenerational occupational mobility in Africa? Drawing on research supported by the IMF and based on census data curated by the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), the study leverages data on over 28 million individuals across 27 African countries. The question is as relevant as it is urgent. In many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, young people often inherit their parents' jobs, especially in agriculture or the informal economy, limiting their chances to access better livelihoods. The paper investigates whether access to digital infrastructure, particularly internet connectivity via submarine cables and mobile phone usage, can disrupt this cycle and offer new avenues for economic ascent.

Breaking Free from the Generational Job Trap

 Intergenerational occupational mobility refers to the movement of individuals up or down the job status ladder relative to their parents. When mobility is low, society suffers from a misallocation of talent, stagnating productivity, and persistent inequality. In Africa, upward occupational mobility is particularly constrained. On average, only about 19% of individuals achieve better job outcomes than their parents, while nearly 28% end up in worse positions. Countries like Mauritius, South Africa, and Botswana fare better, but many others, such as Burkina Faso, Malawi, and Togo, show alarmingly low upward mobility rates. The IMF paper argues that digitalization can play a pivotal role in unlocking opportunity, especially for youth trying to move from agriculture or informal sectors into more stable blue- or white-collar jobs.

Submarine Cables and Mobile Phones: Digital Game Changers

To measure digitalization, the study uses two key indicators: national connectivity to submarine internet cables and individual mobile phone ownership. Submarine cables, which arrived in most African countries in the 2000s, provide a powerful exogenous shock to digital access and serve as the main explanatory variable. Mobile phone ownership, though more personal and potentially influenced by income, serves as a robustness check. The results are striking. The arrival of submarine cables is associated with an increase in the likelihood of upward occupational mobility by 17.5 to 26.7 percentage points. At the same time, the risk of downward mobility drops by 17.8 to 36.7 points. Mobile phone ownership also boosts the probability of upward mobility by 8 to 10.7 points and reduces downward mobility by 13 to 17.4 points. These effects remain significant even when controlling for factors like age, education, gender, rural residency, and access to infrastructure.

Institutions and Policy: The Critical Enablers

While digital access matters, the policy and institutional environment dramatically shapes its impact. The authors test whether the benefits of digitalization are amplified in countries with better governance and proactive ICT policies. Their findings are unequivocal. The effects of submarine cable connectivity are stronger in countries with higher scores on institutional quality, measured through rule of law, regulatory strength, and corruption control. Moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile in institutional quality raises the chance of upward mobility by 8.8 percentage points. Likewise, in countries where governments are more successful at promoting ICT, the probability of upward mobility rises by 5.3 points, and downward mobility drops significantly, by as much as 22 percentage points. This underscores the importance of coupling digital investments with supportive governance and targeted digital inclusion efforts.

From Connectivity to Opportunity: What Must Change

The research offers clear policy implications: while digital infrastructure can lay the foundation, governments must take additional steps to convert connectivity into real opportunities. Individuals in rural areas or those lacking access to clean water, electricity, or education are far less likely to benefit from digital tools. Conflict-affected countries also show weaker mobility gains, suggesting that peace and stability are prerequisites for digital dividends. Gender also plays a complex role. Women show a slightly higher likelihood of upward mobility, possibly due to their initially lower status and the impact of gender-inclusive policies. However, social and cultural constraints continue to limit their full participation in the digital and formal economies. The study calls on African policymakers to address these underlying inequalities in tandem with expanding digital access.

The IMF paper makes a compelling case that digitalization, especially when supported by sound institutions and inclusive policies, can act as a catalyst for lifting African youth into better, more secure jobs than those held by their parents. It shows that technology, far from being a luxury, can be a powerful equalizer when deployed equitably. Yet it also cautions that without deliberate efforts to improve education, infrastructure, and governance, the benefits of digitalization may remain confined to the already-privileged few. As the digital revolution gathers pace across Africa, this research provides a vital blueprint for how to ensure it becomes a genuine engine of upward mobility, not just a technological upgrade.