Air Cargo Demand Hits New Record in October 2025 as Global Trade Accelerates

Total air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose 4.1% compared to October 2024. International cargo demand showed even stronger growth at 4.8%.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released new data on global air cargo markets for October 2025, revealing the sector’s eighth consecutive month of expansion and its strongest performance to date. Global air freight volumes continued to climb despite persistent geopolitical tensions, shifting trade flows, and volatile fuel prices—signalling a highly adaptive cargo industry responding dynamically to global economic pressures.

Air Cargo Demand Continues Strong Recovery

Total air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose 4.1% compared to October 2024. International cargo demand showed even stronger growth at 4.8%. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), expanded 5.1% overall and 6.4% for international operations as airlines deployed more widebody aircraft and restored long-haul routes.

This steady expansion has helped set a new monthly record for total freight volumes.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh highlighted positive momentum heading into the busiest shipping period of the year:

“Air cargo demand grew 4.1% year-on-year in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion and setting a new monthly record for volumes… This shifting growth pattern shows that air cargo is enabling global supply chains to adapt to the impact of US tariffs.”

Walsh added that the strong results provide a welcome boost as the industry enters its traditional fourth-quarter peak season, driven by electronics, e-commerce, automotive components, pharmaceuticals, and holiday retail products.

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Global Economic Conditions Support Freight Growth

Air cargo’s expansion aligns with several broader macroeconomic indicators:

1. Global Goods Trade Growth

• Up 3% year-on-year in September

• Reflects increased demand for manufactured goods and restocking trends

2. Industrial Production Rebounds

• Up 3.7% year-on-year, the fastest pace since March 2025

• Indicates strong manufacturing momentum after months of softer activity

3. Jet Fuel Costs Up Despite Crude Oil Declines

• Jet fuel prices rose 2.5% in October

• A tightening diesel market pushed the jet crack spread to nearly double 2024 levels

• Higher fuel prices are likely to increase operating costs for cargo operators

4. Manufacturing PMI Trending Upward

• PMI reached 51.45, its third consecutive monthly rise

• A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing

• New export orders, however, fell slightly to 48.31, underscoring caution amid tariff uncertainties

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Regional Cargo Market Performance

Regional performance in October reflected shifting trade patterns, including adjustments to U.S. tariff measures, strong intra-Asia activity, and resilience in emerging markets.

Asia-Pacific: 8.3% Growth – Second Fastest Worldwide

• Demand up 8.3%

• Capacity up 7.3%

Asia-Pacific continues to be a powerhouse in global cargo markets, supported by strong intra-regional trade and growing flows with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. However, air cargo traffic on the Asia–North America corridor contracted for the sixth straight month due to tariff effects and supply chain realignment.

North America: -2.7% – Weakest Regional Growth

• Demand down 2.7%

• Capacity up 0.1%

North American carriers showed the sharpest year-on-year decline, tied with Latin America. The downturn reflects:

• Tariff-driven declines in Asia–North America trade

• Slower e-commerce growth in the U.S.

• Higher fuel costs impacting margins

Europe: 4.3% Growth – Stabilizing Market Dynamics

• Demand up 4.3%

• Capacity up 4.3%

European carriers benefited from:

• Strengthening Europe–Asia volumes

• Stable transatlantic trade

• Strong contributions from industrial and pharmaceutical shipments

Within-Europe volumes, however, remained soft.

Middle East: 5.7% Growth – Benefiting From Trade Diversions

• Demand up 5.7%

• Capacity up 10.0%

Middle Eastern hubs, including Dubai and Doha, are capturing a growing share of rerouted global trade flows, especially on Middle East–Asia and Middle East–Europe routes.

Latin America: -2.7% – Tied for Slowest Growth

• Demand down 2.7%

• Capacity up 2.8%

Weak regional economic performance and reduced agro-export volumes contributed to Latin America’s slowdown.

Africa: 16.6% Growth – Fastest Growth Globally

• Demand up 16.6%

• Capacity up 20.0%

Africa registered its strongest cargo performance on record, driven by:

• Increased trade with Asia, particularly technology and manufacturing inputs

• Growth in perishables and e-commerce

• Investment in cargo capacity at African hubs

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Trade Lane Performance: Most Corridors Expand

Air freight volumes rose across most major trade lanes in October:

Strongest corridors:

• Europe–Asia: Double-digit growth, strongest globally

• Middle East–Asia: Solid performance driven by rerouted cargo flows

• Africa–Asia: Robust increases supported by rising industrial and agricultural shipments

• Within Asia: Near double-digit growth, reflecting strong regional demand

Moderate growth:

• Europe–North America posted modest positive gains

• Europe–Middle East remained broadly flat

Declining corridors:

• North America–Asia continued to contract due to tariff impacts

• Within Europe remained subdued amid economic stagnation

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Air Cargo Outlook

With the final quarter historically being the strongest for air cargo, IATA expects demand to remain solid through the end of 2025. However, challenges persist:

• Tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions

• Higher fuel prices and operating costs

• Sluggish growth in new export orders

• Tightening global financial conditions

Still, the sector’s agility and consistent month-on-month expansion highlight its vital role in supporting global supply chains.

As Walsh noted, “Air cargo continues to prove its resilience—and its strategic importance in keeping global trade moving.”