Safer Streets or Just More Cyclists? What Canada’s Bike Lane Boom Really Shows

The study finds that physically separated cycle tracks are generally safer than painted bike lanes and are much more effective at encouraging people to cycle, especially in large Canadian cities. Painted lanes show weaker or even negative safety effects, highlighting that infrastructure design matters for both safety and cycling uptake.

A study, conducted by researchers from leading Canadian institutions, including the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, Toronto Metropolitan University, McMaster University, Simon Fraser University, the University of Calgary, and the SickKids Research Institute, responds to a key question facing many cities: as cycling is promoted for health, climate, and mobility reasons, does building bike infrastructure actually make streets safer for cyclists and other road users?

The Promise and Risk of Cycling

Cycling offers well-documented benefits. It improves physical and mental health, reduces air pollution, and helps cities cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, cyclists are also among the most vulnerable road users. In Canada, most fatal cycling crashes involve motor vehicles, and fear of traffic danger remains one of the main reasons people avoid cycling. To address this, many cities have embraced the Vision Zero approach, which focuses on designing roads that reduce the chance of serious injury even when mistakes occur. Expanding cycling infrastructure, especially protected facilities, has become a central part of this strategy.

How the Study Was Done

The researchers examined cycling infrastructure and injury data from Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver over more than a decade. They focused on two common types of on-street infrastructure: cycle tracks, which physically separate cyclists from cars using barriers like curbs or bollards, and painted bike lanes, which rely mainly on road markings. A major strength of the study was its careful verification of infrastructure data. Municipal records often misreport when and where bike lanes were installed or misclassify painted lanes as protected ones. The research team checked each installation using historical street-view images to ensure accuracy.

To evaluate safety impacts, the study used a statistical method called staggered difference-in-differences. In simple terms, this means that streets that received bike infrastructure later were used as comparison streets for those that received it earlier. This approach helps separate the effect of the infrastructure itself from broader trends, such as overall improvements in road safety or changes in traffic patterns. The main outcome measured was the number of people killed or seriously injured in traffic crashes per ten kilometres of road, with a separate analysis focusing only on cyclists.

What the Results Show

The findings are mixed but revealing. When all types of cycling infrastructure are grouped together, there is no clear evidence that they consistently reduce serious injuries across the three cities. However, important differences appear once infrastructure types are separated. Cycle tracks were generally associated with either no change or reductions in cyclist injuries. This was most evident in Calgary, where new cycle tracks were linked to fewer cyclist deaths and serious injuries per ten kilometres of road.

Painted bike lanes told a different story. In Vancouver, painted lanes were associated with increases in both overall serious injuries and cyclist-specific injuries. This suggests that simply adding paint to busy roads may not be enough to protect cyclists, particularly in dense urban environments. Upgrading painted lanes to cycle tracks did not show strong or consistent effects, partly because there were relatively few such upgrades and injury events.

Cycling More, Even If Risks Remain

An important part of the study looks beyond injuries to cycling volumes. Using available data from a small subset of locations, the researchers found that cycle tracks led to large increases in cycling. In Vancouver, cycling volumes increased more than sevenfold after cycle tracks were installed. Toronto and Calgary also saw major increases, while painted lanes produced much smaller changes and even slight declines in Calgary. This suggests that people are far more willing to cycle when they feel physically separated from traffic.

These increases complicate how safety results should be interpreted. If many more people start cycling, the total number of injuries might stay the same or even rise slightly, even if cycling becomes safer for each individual rider. Because detailed cycling volume data were not available for all streets and years, the study could not fully adjust for this effect. As a result, the findings reflect the combined impact of infrastructure on both safety and the number of cyclists.

What This Means for Cities

The study suggests that not all bike infrastructure is equal. Physically separated cycle tracks appear more effective than painted lanes at supporting safer streets while also encouraging more people to cycle. While better data are needed for more precise conclusions, the evidence supports prioritizing protected cycling infrastructure as cities work toward safer, healthier, and more sustainable transportation systems.