GenAI to Reshape Global Jobs Unevenly, ILO–World Bank Warns: Developing Economies Face Faster Disruption

The ILO–World Bank study emphasizes that outcomes are not predetermined and depend heavily on policy responses.

A new joint study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the World Bank has found that generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is poised to transform labour markets worldwide—but with deeply uneven impacts between advanced and developing economies.

The report, part of the upcoming World Development Report 2026, highlights a critical imbalance: while richer countries may harness productivity gains, developing economies risk facing job disruption faster than they can benefit from the technology.

A Global Shift with Unequal Effects

The study examines labour market exposure to GenAI across 135 countries, covering nearly two-thirds of global employment, and identifies key drivers shaping its impact:

• Digital infrastructure gaps

• Differences in job tasks and work organization

• Varying levels of skills and technology adoption

Advanced Economies: Higher Exposure, More Opportunity

In high-income countries:

• Jobs in clerical, administrative, and professional roles show the highest exposure to GenAI

• Workers are more likely to:

  • Use computers regularly

  • Perform analytical and non-routine tasks

• This increases the potential for:

  • Productivity gains

  • Job transformation rather than outright loss

Developing Economies: Lower Exposure, Higher Risk

While overall exposure to GenAI is lower in developing countries, the risks are more acute:

• Jobs vulnerable to automation are often:

  • Already digitized or online

  • Among the better-quality jobs available

• These include:

  • Clerical and administrative roles

  • Entry-level office jobs

These positions have historically served as pathways to stable employment, particularly for:

• Women

• Young workers

👉 The report warns that AI-driven automation could eliminate these pathways, worsening inequality.

The Digital Divide: A Critical Constraint

A central finding of the study is the role of the digital divide in shaping outcomes:

• Workers in at-risk jobs are often connected and visible to automation tools

• But workers in roles that could benefit from AI:

  • Often lack reliable internet access

  • Have limited access to digital tools

This creates a paradox:

• Higher risk of job loss

• Lower access to productivity gains

Same Job, Different Reality

The report also challenges the assumption that job titles reflect similar work globally.

Even within the same occupation:

• Workers in developing countries:

  • Perform more routine or manual tasks

  • Use less technology

  • Engage in fewer analytical functions

This reduces the scope for GenAI to enhance productivity, limiting its positive impact.

Structural Risks: Inequality and Labour Market Polarization

Without intervention, GenAI could:

• Accelerate job displacement in vulnerable sectors

• Deepen income and opportunity gaps

• Reinforce global inequality between countries

The loss of mid-level jobs could also lead to labour market polarization, with fewer pathways to upward mobility.

Policy Imperatives: Turning Risk into Opportunity

The ILO–World Bank study emphasizes that outcomes are not predetermined and depend heavily on policy responses.

Key recommendations include:

• Expanding digital infrastructure

  • Ensuring universal and affordable internet access

• Investing in skills development

  • Digital literacy

  • AI-related competencies

  • Adaptability and lifelong learning

• Strengthening labour market institutions

  • Worker protections

  • Transition support mechanisms

• Enhancing social protection systems

  • Safety nets for displaced workers

  • Support for reskilling and re-employment

The Bigger Picture: Technology vs Readiness

The report’s core message is clear:

👉 The impact of GenAI will be shaped not just by technology—but by readiness.

Countries with:

• Strong digital ecosystems

• Skilled workforces

• Adaptive institutions

will be better positioned to capture benefits and manage risks.

A Critical Moment for Developing Economies

For developing countries, the stakes are particularly high:

• Failure to adapt could entrench inequality

• Proactive reforms could unlock new growth opportunities

As GenAI adoption accelerates globally, the study underscores the urgency of closing digital gaps and preparing workforces for a rapidly evolving labour market.