Heat Stress Could Cost Sri Lanka and Maldives $26.6 Billion Annually by 2040, ILO Warns

Sri Lanka accounts for approximately 145,000 of those projected full-time equivalent losses, with a further 2,400 in the Maldives.

Rising temperatures and workplace heat stress are already harming workers, productivity and economies in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, according to new International Labour Organization studies. The findings project substantially greater losses in the coming decades, making protection from excessive heat an immediate concern for workplaces and economic planning. Even under a low-emissions pathway, reduced working time could amount to the equivalent of around 147,000 full-time jobs across the two countries by 2040.

Sri Lanka accounts for approximately 145,000 of those projected full-time equivalent losses, with a further 2,400 in the Maldives. Combined annual GDP losses could reach around US$26.6 billion by 2040, comprising approximately US$26 billion in Sri Lanka and US$576 million in the Maldives. These estimates measure losses against a historical reference period, showing how increased heat exposure could affect working time and economic output.

The studies found that climate-related workplace heat stress had already caused additional working-time and GDP losses in both countries in 2023 compared with the 1985–2014 reference period. The findings underline the need to include heat protection in occupational safety, climate adaptation and measures to strengthen economic resilience. Workers' ability to stay safe also depends on whether they can reduce their exposure without losing income needed to support themselves and their families.

Agriculture, services and construction face growing pressure

Agriculture is expected to be the hardest-hit sector in Sri Lanka, followed by services, manufacturing and construction, according to the studies. Services and construction face the greatest effects in the Maldives, placing heat protection among the concerns for businesses and workers in both sectors. The findings show why responses need to reflect each country's employment structure and the conditions people face in their daily work.

Safer schedules and cooling facilities can reduce exposure

Practical measures include adjusting working hours to avoid the hottest periods, introducing suitable work-rest cycles and providing shade, drinking water and cooling facilities. Stronger workplace heat monitoring, occupational safety and health standards, and awareness of heat-related risks can support these changes. Joni Simpson, ILO Country Director for Sri Lanka and the Maldives, called for governments, employers and workers to develop practical solutions through social dialogue that protect health and livelihoods and sustain productive enterprises.

Income protection is essential for workers facing heat risks

The studies highlight the importance of social protection, particularly for people who cannot shorten their working hours without losing essential income. The research forms part of a six-country initiative covering Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon and Senegal, examining the effects of heat stress on work and economies. Commissioned by the ILO with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers, the studies received funding through the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund.