Rubio faces tough task of selling Iran reset to wary Gulf allies

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to address Gulf Arab leaders' concerns over Washington's Iran peace deal, which they fear will strengthen Tehran and reshape the region's security balance.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged he ​faces a delicate mission this week pitching Washington's Iran peace deal to Gulf Arab leaders who fear ‌excessive ​concessions will strengthen Tehran and reshape the region's security balance and oil flows.

America's top diplomat arrived in the United Arab Emirates late on Tuesday and was due to travel in coming days to Kuwait and Bahrain, where he will meet officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council, a grouping of monarchies that also includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman. Asked if he was planning to address allies' disquiet with the accord, Rubio told reporters: "That most certainly will ‌come up in these discussions." He said they would also discuss issues not covered by the memorandum of understanding.

At issue are elements of a draft agreement that includes no limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles, a proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund and provisions that could expand Tehran’s regional influence and control over critical oil shipping lanes. He said he would not be asking regional allies to contribute to any reconstruction fund during the trip, even as the MoU suggests that countries in the region would at least be partially responsible for footing the bill. He said that was a discussion for the future, and Iran receiving any funds would depend on ‌Tehran's behavior going forward.

"That's far down the road," Rubio said. All six GCC nations are strategic U.S. allies that offered some degree of logistical support to Washington during the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that began four months ago, and all were buffeted by Iranian airstrikes as a result.

Some ‌of those countries are feeling privately disappointed - and surprised - by an interim deal that could open the door to U.S. normalisation with Iran, a predominantly Shi'ite country that most Sunni-led GCC states consider their main adversary. The opinions of these nations matter to U.S. policymakers.

The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain all host U.S. military bases that make up the backbone of America's security architecture in the Middle East. Should any of those countries rethink their security relationship with the U.S., even in a subtle way, it could have a significant impact on U.S. military strategy in the region. For Rubio personally - who has maintained notable distance from the Iran talks in recent weeks, deferring almost entirely to Vice President JD Vance and other Trump aides - the ⁠trip requires a balancing act.

While ​America's top diplomat needs to assuage regional allies, he must do so without ⁠appearing to criticize the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. President Donald Trump, who signed the accord last week, remains firmly behind it despite criticism from some of his fellow Republicans in Congress who have accused the administration of capitulating to Tehran. Andrew Peek, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Iraq and Iran who served on Trump's National Security Council during both his terms, argued ⁠that Rubio could reassure any nervous allies by pointing out that Trump has a history of being tough on the Islamic Republic.

"I think you can just remind them that the president has conducted extremely hawkish policies toward Iran - and if this MoU falls through, he will have no compunction about going back to striking them," said Peek, who ​is now at the Atlantic Council think tank. PEACE - BUT AT WHAT COST?

Leaders from all GCC countries hosting Rubio or present at this week's talks at least publicly pushed for a diplomatic solution before the war kicked off in February. Most also pushed for a diplomatic off-ramp ⁠during the conflict, even as they in practice facilitated the U.S. war effort. Still, the specific terms of the MoU privately shocked regional officials, according to analysts and diplomats.

One concern relates to ballistic missiles. Throughout the war, the Trump administration said that destroying Iran's ballistic missile capacity was a central goal. That objective aligned with the interests of the Sunni Gulf states, all well within Iran's ballistic ⁠range. The ​MoU, however, does not mention Iranian missiles at all, and Trump himself has in recent days said that denying Tehran such weapons would be "unfair."

The MoU also foresees a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Tehran, which regional neighbors fear could allow the Islamic Republic to build up its military capacity, while increasing support for regional proxy groups that could destabilize governments throughout the region. Bahrain's mainly Sunni leadership, in particular, is concerned that a well-funded Iran could foment an uprising among the island nation's mainly Shi'ite populace, analysts say. During the Arab Spring, the nation of roughly 1.65 million was the site of massive recurring street ⁠protests.

Iran has denied any covert attempts to stoke unrest but has publicly expressed support for Bahraini Shi'ite activists in the past. The accord, as written, also appears to concede that Iran could have a key role in controlling the Strait of Hormuz going forward, a major concern for the Gulf ⁠exporters, which rely on the strait to ship oil and gas. Rubio said on ⁠Tuesday that Iran would not be able to charge tolls, as doing so would be contrary to international law.

More broadly, U.S. officials have begun speaking about a broader reset for Tehran, a potential transformation that most GCC states are wary of. On Saturday, Vance said the U.S. was willing to "fundamentally transform" its relationship with Tehran. "The agreement rehabilitates Tehran's regime as a regional power," veteran Saudi columnist Abdulrahman Al-Rashed wrote in the Saudi English-language daily Arab News last ‌week.

"Most of the funds Tehran will acquire in ‌the coming weeks are likely to go primarily towards strengthening the military position, not to support living conditions or the Iranian economy."