Afghanistan election: What's in store as both the frontrunners claim victory

In 2014, the results of the poll were followed by allegations and counter-allegations leading to a deadlock which continued for a couple of months until a power-sharing agreement was reached between Ghani and Abdullah.


Parag NarangParag Narang | Updated: 30-09-2019 20:43 IST | Created: 30-09-2019 20:43 IST
Afghanistan election: What's in store as both the frontrunners claim victory
The Afghanistan election seems to be far from over. Image Credit: Twitter (@moiafghanistan)
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The stakes are high in the election for next Afghanistan president. Though the polls for the post of next president concluded peacefully, low turnout amid threats by the Taliban remained the prime concerns. The official turnout figures are yet to be revealed but the estimated turnout is around 20-25 per cent, which, if true, would be a historic low for Afghanistan.

Millions of people voted in the elections which are said to be relatively calm with the official death toll set at five security forces. There are differences in the numbers claimed by both Taliban and the government, while the rebel group claims that they have conducted 531 attacks, the interior ministry said "the enemy" had carried out 68 assaults.

However, the lack of interest by the voters has been identified as the primary reason for the low turn out of the electorates, while many say that the elections are just farce, others believe that an unclear result can drive the war-torn country of around 34 million people into further chaos.

What's next?

If no candidates get over 50 per cent of the votes, a second round will be conducted between the top 2 candidates to determine the next president. The preliminary result is not expected until October 19 while the final result is expected to be released on November 7. The second round, if required, is likely to be held in late-November.

As of now, none of the candidates has complained about any irregularity in the election process, which is usually the case in Afghanistan. The international community has urged the leaders to ensure the elections are free and fair. The United States, which is hugely involved in Afghanistan and played a major role in toppling Taliban, has also called on politicians to shun fraud, said: "government institutions and leaders must be transparent and accountable to the Afghan people."

A total of 15 candidates took part in the elections, but only current president Ashraf Ghani and current Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah are considered to be the top contenders for the post.

While Abdullah has already claimed that he will win the elections, the Ghani clan is not far behind. Although Ghani has not made any such statement, his running mate, Amrullah Saleh, said Ghani had won a clear first-ballot victory. If none of them is able to secure more than 50 per cent votes, another high-stakes second round of elections will be held in late-November. Only the top 2 candidates will participate in the second round.

A repeat of 2014 Afghanistan elections?

Abdullah has claimed that the election won’t even go to the second round. While Ghani is yet to respond to Abdullah’s statement, his supporters have already invalidated the claim. Ghani’s running mate, Amrullah Saleh, has even said that Ghani had won a clear first-ballot victory, without offering evidence. The statements come amid heightened scare that 2014 deadlock might be repeated in these elections.

In 2014, the Afghanistan elections were overshadowed with widespread claims of fraud. Those elections brought the country to the brink of another fallout before a power-sharing agreement was reached between Ghani and Abdullah. Abdullah was given the post of Chief Executive Officer, which was only created during the post-election tussle. The result of 2014 elections was declared more than one and a half year later, which showed that Ghani won with over 55 per cent of votes but the result was outrightly rejected by the opposition.

With frontrunners claiming victory just 2 days after the votes were cast and weeks before the preliminary result is released, the fear of 2014 election crisis being repeated are ripe and the Afghanistan election seems to be far from over.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are the personal views of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of Devdiscourse and Devdiscourse does not claim any responsibility for the same.)

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