With Trump looming, but not on ballot, voters in four U.S. states head to polls

Voters in Kentucky and Mississippi head to the polls on Tuesday to choose their next governors in two close races, while Democrats in Virginia look to flip the handful of legislative seats they need to take full control of that state's government.

The election results will be closely scrutinized for clues to how next year's presidential contest will unfold. While none of the four states voting on Tuesday – New Jersey also has legislative elections – is likely to be up for grabs in November 2020, the outcomes could offer an early measuring stick for the Democratic candidates eager to deny Republican President Donald Trump a second four-year term. In Kentucky and Mississippi, where Trump won easily in 2016 and remains relatively popular, the Republican candidates have nationalized the races as much as possible by tying themselves to the president.

The same is true in Republican-leaning Louisiana, where early voting has started ahead of the Nov. 16 gubernatorial election pitting incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards against Republican challenger Eddie Rispone, a staunch Trump backer. Trump held a rally in Lexington, Kentucky, on Monday evening to support Republican Governor Matt Bevin, who is trying to overcome anemic approval ratings to defeat Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear.

Trump's speech to thousands of supporters was an explicit attempt to make the Kentucky governor's election a referendum on his presidency as he tries to survive an impeachment probe in the Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives. Kentuckians need to re-elect Bevin, said Trump, or else pundits will say: "Trump suffered the greatest defeat in the history of the world. ... You can't let that happen to me."

The visit followed a speech Trump delivered in Mississippi on Friday, where the Republican lieutenant governor, Tate Reeves, is running against Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood. 'NATIONALIZATION'

Polls show both Beshear and Hood have a chance to score an upset despite their states' Republican leanings. Bevin is perhaps the country's least popular governor, according to opinion polls, after damaging battles with labor unions and teachers. But he has taken a narrow lead over Beshear in recent weeks after staunchly defending Trump against the impeachment inquiry.

In Mississippi, where Governor Phil Bryant, a Republican, is barred by term limits from running again, Reeves holds a small edge in polls over Hood, a moderate Democrat who opposes abortion and favors gun rights. The Virginia contest has drawn heavy attention and money from both parties. Independent analysts say Democrats are slightly favored to erase the razor-thin margins Republicans currently hold in both chambers of the state legislature.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, a Democratic presidential front-runner, visited Virginia over the weekend to campaign with several statehouse candidates, and Republican Vice President Mike Pence held a rally on Saturday. Other Democratic presidential contenders, including U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker, have also campaigned with local candidates.

Notably, Trump has avoided Virginia, where Democrats found success in suburban swing districts in last year's congressional elections. Tuesday's election could offer a test of whether the anti-Trump surge that tipped those districts remains potent. "You're seeing this nationalization happen," said Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "These states are good tests for that."

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