UN Warns Climate Change Will Slash Crop Yields, Threatening Global Well-Being

“Climate change is not just an environmental challenge—it is a profound development crisis,” said Pedro Conceição, Director of the UNDP’s Human Development Report Office.

 

A major new dataset released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Climate Impact Lab through the Human Climate Horizons (HCH) platform paints a dire picture of the future: climate change is poised to severely reduce agricultural productivity around the world—particularly in countries least equipped to respond.

The newly released data show that over 90% of the 176 countries analyzed are projected to experience a decline in staple crop yields by the end of the century, even after accounting for known farmer adaptation strategies. This poses a significant threat to food security, economic stability, and human development.

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Climate Change as a Development Crisis

“Climate change is not just an environmental challenge—it is a profound development crisis,” said Pedro Conceição, Director of the UNDP’s Human Development Report Office.

He stressed that agricultural yields are vital not only for feeding populations, but also for supporting livelihoods, preventing poverty, and enabling economic diversification—especially in rural communities.

“Threats to agricultural yields are threats to human development today and in the future,” Conceição emphasized.

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High-Resolution Global Data and Methodology

The HCH dataset provides localized, high-resolution climate projections linking climate variables such as temperature and precipitation to agricultural yield outcomes for six staple crops:

• Maize

• Rice

• Wheat

• Soy

• Cassava

• Sorghum

These projections are presented under two emissions scenarios—moderate and very high—and span three timeframes:

• Near-term (2020–2039)

• Mid-century (2040–2059)

• End-of-century (2080–2099)

The data encompass over 19,000 subnational regions across 100+ countries, providing policymakers and researchers with detailed insight into how climate change could reshape global food systems.

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Poorest Countries Face the Worst Impacts

Countries with low Human Development Index (HDI) scores are expected to suffer the steepest yield declines. In some of the least developed nations, yields could fall by 25–30% under high-emission scenarios by 2100. Regions in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited resources for adaptation.

However, developed “breadbasket” economies like those in North America, Eastern Europe, and South America, which are major global producers of wheat and soy, are also not immune. Under severe warming, some of these regions could experience up to 40% losses, potentially disrupting global trade, increasing food prices, and exacerbating geopolitical tensions.

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Urgent Need for Equitable and Human-Centred Climate Action

The findings lend weight to the recent Belém Declaration on Hunger, Poverty, and Human-Centred Climate Action, issued in the lead-up to COP30 in Brazil. The declaration underscores the urgent need for global strategies that put food systems and equity at the heart of climate policy.

Crucially, the HCH data shows that mitigation matters: if emissions are reduced to moderate levels, projected crop losses by the end of the century are less than half those seen under high-emissions scenarios. This applies to both rich and poor nations.

“The pathway to a sustainable and equitable future lies in human-centred climate action,” said Conceição. “Ensuring that every person retains access to sufficient, nutritious, and reliable food is not only a matter of survival—it is a cornerstone of human dignity and development.”

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Policy Implications and Next Steps

This data comes at a pivotal time for global climate and development policy. It provides:

• A scientific basis for integrating food systems into national climate action plans

• A call to strengthen adaptation infrastructure, such as irrigation, crop diversification, and climate-resilient farming practices

• A demand for investment in smallholder agriculture, particularly in vulnerable countries

Policymakers are urged to use these findings as a decision-making tool to guide not only climate mitigation strategies but also social protection, food security, and public health systems.

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Final Takeaway

Climate change is not a distant threat—it is already affecting the building blocks of human survival and economic prosperity. The UNDP's new data makes it clear: the fight for climate justice is inseparable from the fight for development, equity, and human rights.