WMO Warns Strong El Niño Will Shape Global Weather in 2026

WMO said the forecasts provide governments and communities with valuable time to prepare for potential impacts before they become more severe.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is continuing to intensify and is expected to become a strong event during the August–October 2026 period, bringing widespread changes to global temperatures and rainfall patterns.

According to the latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the developing El Niño, combined with unusually warm ocean temperatures and the likely emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, is expected to influence weather conditions across many parts of the world. The climate pattern is likely to increase the risk of droughts, floods, heatwaves and wildfires in several regions over the coming months. WMO said the forecasts provide governments and communities with valuable time to prepare for potential impacts before they become more severe.

Higher temperatures forecast across most regions

The seasonal outlook indicates a strong probability of above-normal temperatures across much of the globe. The most pronounced warming is expected across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, large parts of South America and New Zealand.

In the Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures are forecast to continue rising, with climate models projecting anomalies exceeding 2.9°C in key monitoring regions during the August–October season. Tropical Atlantic waters are also expected to remain warmer than average, adding to global climate influences.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said forecasts alone cannot prevent disasters, but they provide an opportunity for governments and communities to anticipate risks and take action before the impacts unfold.

Rainfall patterns point to drought and flood risks

The latest outlook shows the classic rainfall pattern associated with a strong El Niño event. Above-normal rainfall is expected across the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America south of 45°N and southeastern South America.

At the same time, drier-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean, northwestern South America and northern Europe, increasing the risk of drought and water shortages in those regions.

The expected development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could further amplify these impacts, particularly around countries bordering the Indian Ocean, where drought, flooding and wildfire risks may increase.

Early action urged as climate risks grow

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the strengthening El Niño is adding to an already warming planet experiencing record-breaking ocean temperatures, severe heatwaves and destructive wildfires. He called for urgent action to protect communities and tackle the underlying drivers of climate change.

The WMO is expanding its coordination with governments, United Nations agencies and humanitarian organisations by providing seasonal climate briefings, technical support and regional forecasts. It is also organising webinars and technical exchanges to strengthen preparedness and help countries reduce the risks associated with the developing El Niño event.