Rethinking Paint: The Ingredients Driving Its Huge Carbon Footprint

The researchers combined a detailed carbon audit of a European coating factory with operational records collected from 14 European manufacturing plants. The audited facility produced 35,640 tonnes of coatings in 2022 and generated an estimated cradle-to-customer-gate footprint of 192,834 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

The research paper 'Decarbonization Roadmap: Prioritized Mitigation Hierarchy in the Paint and Coating Industry,' published in the journal Sustainability, examines where emissions arise across paint and coating production and which solutions manufacturers should address first. Researchers Cenk Aydin and Ismail Ekmekci found that factory boilers and electricity use represent only a small part of the sector's climate footprint. Most emissions are already embedded in resins, binders, pigments, solvents and other materials before they arrive at the manufacturing site.

Raw materials account for nearly nine-tenths of the footprint

The researchers combined a detailed carbon audit of a European coating factory with operational records collected from 14 European manufacturing plants. The audited facility produced 35,640 tonnes of coatings in 2022 and generated an estimated cradle-to-customer-gate footprint of 192,834 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Upstream raw materials were responsible for 172,557 tonnes, equal to 89.48% of the total footprint. Natural gas burned at the factory produced 1,711 tonnes, or 0.89%, while purchased electricity generated 4,741 tonnes under location-based accounting, representing 2.46%. Outbound distribution added 776 tonnes, fugitive volatile organic compound releases contributed 34 tonnes, and packaging, waste and other activities produced another 13,015 tonnes.

These figures challenge factory decarbonization plans that concentrate mainly on efficient machinery, boilers and lighting. Such improvements still matter, yet they address less than 4% of the organization's full carbon footprint when raw-material production is included. A manufacturer can operate an increasingly efficient plant while continuing to sell carbon-intensive products if petroleum-based ingredients remain unchanged.

The researchers used audited meters, procurement records, solvent-recovery balances and lifecycle emission factors to calculate the footprint. Product use and end-of-life disposal were excluded because customer behaviour and disposal conditions could not be estimated reliably. The 14-plant dataset covered natural gas, electricity, solvent use and production across eight quarters in 2024 and 2025, helping the team test whether the baseline facility reflected wider operating patterns.

Energy consumption shifted noticeably throughout the year

Average natural gas intensity reached 289.5 kilowatt-hours per tonne during the fourth quarter of 2024, largely because colder weather increased building-heating demand and the energy required to preheat thermal oxidizers. Electricity demand climbed during warmer months, reaching 208.7 kilowatt-hours per tonne in the third quarter of 2025 as factories used more cooling for heat-producing grinding equipment and indoor climate control.

All 14 monitored plants reported market-based electricity emissions of zero because they retired Guarantees of Origin covering their contracted power. Their location-based emissions remained higher because that calculation reflects the average carbon intensity of the regional electricity grid. This difference shows why companies need transparent dual reporting rather than treating renewable certificates as proof that physical electricity consumption has no environmental impact.

To rank possible interventions, the study used a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis model. Carbon-saving potential received 45% of the decision weight, technology readiness received 30%, and economic and operational feasibility received 25%. Twelve technical directors, sustainability managers and chemical process engineers helped establish these priorities through an expert assessment.

A six-tier roadmap puts ingredients ahead of factory equipment

The priority is replacing fossil-based resins and binders with lower-carbon alternatives. Bio-based epoxy, polyurethane, acrylic and alkyd systems, along with tall-oil fatty acids and renewable carbon-black substitutes, could reduce annual emissions by an estimated 25,880 to 60,050 tonnes, equal to 13.4%–31.1% of the baseline footprint. Some bio-epoxies can cut cradle-to-gate emissions by 20%–40% while maintaining comparable mechanical performance.

Bio-based materials are not automatically harmless: Lignin-based epoxy may reduce climate impacts while increasing toxicity, eutrophication, particulate pollution or other environmental pressures because of chemicals used during extraction. Vegetable-based feedstocks can create competition for land and resources, while some materials carry a 5%–20% price premium and need qualification periods lasting six to 18 months. Every substitution needs a broader lifecycle assessment rather than a carbon-only comparison.

The second tier replaces fossil solvents with bio-based or circular drop-in alternatives, potentially avoiding 4,820–9,640 tonnes of emissions each year. These substitutes can often be introduced with limited equipment changes, and previous formulation trials have shown that carefully selected bio-solvents can match conventional solvents in evaporation, viscosity, wetting behaviour and coating performance.

High-temperature heat pumps form the third tier: With coefficients of performance between 2.5 and 3.1, they could replace natural gas boilers and eliminate around 1,027–1,369 tonnes of emissions annually. Their climate value depends on the electricity supply, making low-carbon power and careful integration with production systems essential.

Renewable electricity sits in the fourth tier, with corporate power purchase agreements and on-site solar capable of reducing 4,490–4,741 tonnes annually. Although this option earned a higher numerical score than heat pumps, the researchers placed electrification first so companies can measure their future power demand before sizing solar installations or signing long-term contracts. Grid capacity, permits and PPA approval can delay projects by 18–35 months.

The fifth tier involves redesigning products around waterborne, high-solids, powder or ultraviolet-curable coating systems. This could avoid 15,000–35,000 tonnes annually by reducing solvent demand and thermal treatment, though factories may require stainless-steel storage, new spray systems, modified curing equipment and customer requalification lasting 24–48 months.

Carbon capture should remain a targeted final option

Carbon capture ranks sixth because coating factories produce very different exhaust streams. Direct-fired ovens and gas boilers contain roughly 8%–10% carbon dioxide, making capture conditionally viable at around $60–$100 per tonne. Regenerative thermal oxidizers produce highly diluted exhaust containing only 1%–4% carbon dioxide, pushing direct capture costs toward $180–$260 per tonne while greatly increasing energy demand.

Pre-concentrating dilute emissions is technically possible, yet the additional adsorbent systems, heat and electricity make it less competitive than preventing upstream emissions. Recovering waste heat from thermal oxidizers to power direct-air-capture equipment may offer a future use for this energy, though high capital costs keep it behind mature alternatives.

Detailed raw-material data came from one representative plant; the 14-factory results were aggregated for confidentiality, and electricity prices, grid emissions and renewable-project timelines vary by region. Several estimates for bio-resins and waste-heat-powered carbon capture also rely partly on pilot studies rather than full commercial deployment.