Nuclear Power Could Triple by 2060, but Ageing Reactors Test Growth

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the outlook at the 70th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, presenting the 46th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2060.

Global nuclear power capacity could reach roughly 3.4 times its 2025 level by 2060, according to new International Atomic Energy Agency projections, as countries explore ways to meet growing electricity demand and strengthen energy security. Small modular reactors are expected to contribute a substantial share of new capacity, making their deployment an increasingly important part of nuclear power's future, alongside investment in larger plants and decisions about how much longer existing reactors can operate.

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the outlook at the 70th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, presenting the 46th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2060. The Agency has raised its nuclear expansion projections for six consecutive years, with this edition extending the outlook beyond its previous endpoint of 2050.

A Bigger Nuclear Fleet Faces Faster Electricity Demand

At the end of 2025, the world had 413 operating nuclear reactors with a combined generating capacity of 377.1 gigawatts electric. The IAEA's high case projects capacity reaching 1,045 gigawatts by 2050, up from the 992 gigawatts estimated in last year's outlook, before climbing to 1,284 gigawatts in 2060. Its low case puts capacity at 696 gigawatts by 2060, nearly double the 2025 level, showing growth under both scenarios without making either outcome a certainty.

Nuclear plants generated 2,689.1 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2025, an increase of 1.1% from the previous year, but total global electricity generation grew by a faster 2.7%. That difference pushed nuclear's share of worldwide generation down from 8.7% to 8.4%, illustrating how expanding output does not necessarily translate into a larger share of the electricity supply. Central and Eastern Asia account for the largest share of projected nuclear capacity additions, with regional capacity rising from 114 to 407 gigawatts by 2060 in the high case and nuclear electricity generation increasing almost fivefold.

Small Reactors Take a Larger Role in Future Growth

Small modular reactors, known as SMRs, account for 28% of new nuclear capacity added by 2060 in the high case and 23% in the low case. The previous edition assigned them 24% and 5%, respectively, of new capacity over its shorter projection period, making their expanded contribution a notable feature of the latest outlook.

The report also examines regional deployment, projecting that SMRs could supply about 60% of new nuclear capacity in North America. Their contribution reaches 40% in South-Eastern Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean under both scenarios, pointing to a substantial role across several regions. These percentages describe SMRs' share of newly added nuclear capacity, rather than their share of the entire nuclear fleet or total electricity supply.

Replacing Retiring Reactors Becomes a Major Challenge

Around two-thirds of operating reactors are more than 30 years old, and 45% have been running for over 40 years, placing the future of existing plants at the centre of expansion plans. About one-third of the capacity operating in 2025 would retire by 2060 in the high case, compared with almost two-thirds in the low case, creating a considerable replacement requirement before countries can achieve the projected overall growth.

Seven reactors with a combined capacity of 2.8 gigawatts retired in 2025, and three new reactors supplying 3.0 gigawatts joined the grid. Construction started on another 12 reactors expected to provide 14.3 gigawatts, adding to the pipeline of future capacity. Lifetime extensions and refurbishment programmes are underway in several regions, supported by policy measures addressing the competitiveness of existing plants in deregulated electricity markets. Grossi stressed that achieving nuclear power's projected potential will require investment in both new capacity and longer operation of existing reactors.