Can 'Assassin's Creed Shadows' Save Ubisoft From Financial Turmoil?

Ubisoft is betting big on "Assassin's Creed Shadows" to revive its fortunes amid financial struggles, a plummeting stock price, and takeover speculation. The game, set in feudal Japan, introduces a dual-protagonist system with a female assassin and an African samurai, sparking both anticipation and controversy. While industry experts believe a successful launch could stabilize the company's future, backlash over diversity and changing political dynamics in the U.S. present potential hurdles.

Ubisoft (UBIP.PA) is facing a critical moment in its history as it prepares to launch "Assassin's Creed Shadows," a new installment in its best-selling franchise. The French videogame publisher, struggling with declining revenues and a stock price that fell over 40% last year, is relying on this game to restore investor confidence and fend off takeover speculations. With recent flops like "Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora" and "Star Wars Outlaws," Ubisoft has a lot riding on this release.

"Assassin's Creed Shadows" transports players to feudal Japan, a long-requested setting among fans. The game introduces two protagonists: Naoe, a skilled female assassin, and Yasuke, a heavily armored African samurai inspired by a real-life historical figure. This dual-character approach aims to enhance gameplay variety, integrating refined stealth and parkour mechanics. Gaming analyst Joost Van Dreunen, a lecturer at NYU’s Stern School of Business, believes the game's success is crucial for Ubisoft's financial recovery. "The release of Assassin’s Creed Shadows is a bit of an existential moment for Ubisoft," he said. "If it does well, it could go a long way toward repairing its financial position."

Despite the excitement surrounding the game’s setting and mechanics, Ubisoft has faced criticism over its diverse character choices. The inclusion of an African samurai and a female protagonist has ignited backlash, particularly in the U.S., where discussions around diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) have become politically charged. Elon Musk and other vocal critics have taken to social media to question Ubisoft's direction, reflecting a broader shift in public sentiment as anti-DEI rhetoric gains traction. Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter points out that former President Donald Trump’s influence has made it more acceptable for certain audiences to push back against diversity in media. "Trump has made it okay to be anti-DEI," he noted, suggesting this could impact the game’s reception in the U.S., which accounted for over 53% of Ubisoft’s total video game bookings in fiscal year 2024.

However, diversity in gaming is not a new concept, and previous games with diverse leads, such as Sony’s "Horizon" franchise, have achieved massive success. Van Dreunen believes that even controversy can serve as free marketing. "This only makes the game more interesting to a lot of players, I’m sure," he said. Ubisoft’s founding Guillemot family, the company's largest shareholder, has been in talks with Tencent and other investors about a possible buyout deal to maintain control. Meanwhile, an activist investor has shown interest in the company, putting further pressure on its leadership. YouTube gaming influencer Jordan Van Andel, known as JorRaptor, shared his impressions of the game, stating that while it offers a more polished experience than recent Ubisoft titles, its storytelling may not be as strong. To match the success of "Assassin's Creed Valhalla," which surpassed $1 billion in revenue, "Shadows" must appeal to both franchise loyalists and a wider gaming audience.

With two delays and multiple leaks preceding its release, the stakes for "Assassin's Creed Shadows" couldn’t be higher. Ubisoft is betting on nostalgia, refined mechanics, and its controversial yet bold character choices to make this installment a hit. Whether it will be enough to turn the tide remains to be seen, but one thing is certain—this game could define Ubisoft’s future.