Poland's Wage Growth and Industrial Rebound Surprise Analysts

Poland's wages saw an unexpected growth of 8.6% in December compared to analyst predictions of 6.9%, largely due to manufacturing and transport sectors. Industrial output also surged by 7.3%, exceeding forecasts of 3.0%. The developments create a complex scenario for potential monetary policy changes.

Poland's wages experienced an unexpected surge in December, rising by 8.6% year-on-year, significantly surpassing the anticipated 6.9% growth as per the Statistics Office data released on Thursday. Analysts credit the increase to seasonal factors, with manufacturing, transport, and storage sectors playing pivotal roles in this spike.

In spite of the substantial wage rise, which marked the fastest growth since June, analysts from mBank caution that when adjusted for seasonal factors, December's wage growth was notably lower, suggesting a stable momentum in comparison. This complexity leaves the Monetary Policy Council contemplating its next move on interest rates.

Simultaneously, industrial output made a strong comeback, jumping by 7.3%, which was more than twice the forecasted 3.0% growth. This recovery helps fortify Poland's GDP growth outlook, as mBank analysts predict a 4% y/y GDP growth in Q4. Other key statistics indicated a slight decline in corporate sector employment and a drop in producer prices, adding layers to Poland's economic landscape.

(With inputs from agencies.)