Fitch Downgrades China's Economic Growth Forecast Amid Property Market Concerns

Fitch Ratings has revised its GDP growth forecast for China, projecting 4.3% for 2025 and 4.0% for 2026, amid concerns over the country's real estate sector stability and a potential rise in tariffs on US imports. The prolonged property market downturn continues to pose risks.

Fitch Ratings has adjusted its economic growth expectations for China, citing ongoing challenges in the real estate sector and an anticipated rise in tariffs on imports from the United States. The agency now projects that China's GDP will grow by 4.3% in 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 4.5%.

For 2026, Fitch has further lowered its forecast to 4.0%, having previously predicted a 4.3% increase in September. Despite early signs of stabilization, the Chinese property market still faces protracted uncertainties that could affect overall economic performance.

In addition, Fitch assumes that the effective tariff rate on US imports from China will substantially increase, from around 10% to approximately 35%, adding another layer of complexity to China's economic outlook. The broader impact of these developments will be closely monitored by markets and policymakers alike.

(With inputs from agencies.)