Russia's Oil and Gas Export Revenue Forecast Slashed Amid Price Drop

Russia has cut its oil and gas export revenue forecast for 2025-2027 due to weaker oil prices. With key budget revenues expected to decrease, the economy faces added pressure from defense costs related to the war in Ukraine. Revised projections indicate a 15% revenue drop this year.

Russia has revised its oil and gas export revenue projections for 2025-2027 downward amid weaker oil prices, with expectations set to decrease by 15% this year. The economy ministry's document, reviewing revenues of a significant budget source, reveals challenges exacerbated by high defense spending on the Ukraine conflict.

According to the report, oil and gas revenues are anticipated to reach $200.3 billion in 2023, 15% lower than 2024's projected $235 billion. Proceeds are slated to be $220.4 billion in 2026 and slightly increase to $231 billion in 2027, compared to previous forecasts. These funds currently account for about one-third of Russia's state income.

The economy ministry has updated its oil price expectations, showing a near 17% cut for 2025. With Urals oil trading around $53 per barrel, these revisions signal broader economic implications. Additionally, oil production expectations have been lowered, while a slight recovery in pipeline gas exports is projected by 2025.