IEA Signals Growing Global Oil Surplus by 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has increased its global oil supply growth forecasts, indicating a significant surplus by 2026 due to supply exceeding modest demand growth.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil supply growth forecasts in its latest monthly report, pointing to a deeper surplus in 2026.

The IEA highlighted a growing imbalance in the global oil market, with supply outpacing the modest demand growth seen in historical terms. The agency projects that global oil supply will increase by 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 2.5 million bpd in the following year, each rising by roughly 100,000 bpd compared to the previous month.

According to the IEA's November report, the surplus in 2026 will reach 4.09 million bpd, up from the 3.97 million bpd surplus indicated in October.