India's Sugar Forecast: Revised Estimates Reflect Lower Yields

India's sugar production for the 2025-26 marketing year has been revised down to 32.40 million tonnes due to lower yields in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. Despite reduced production, the total availability of sugar remains sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs, with exports projected at 700,000 tonnes.

India's sugar production forecast for the 2025-26 marketing year has been adjusted to 32.40 million tonnes, reflecting a 5.57 per cent decrease from earlier projections, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). The revision is attributed to lower yields in major producing states, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

Despite this reduction, the sugar supply is likely to meet the domestic demand comfortably. Net availability is expected to be 29.3 million tonnes after diverting 3.1 million tonnes for ethanol production. When combined with the opening stock of 5 million tonnes, the gross availability stands at 34.3 million tonnes, against a domestic consumption estimate of 28.3 million tonnes.

ISMA projects sugar exports at 700,000 tonnes and closing stocks at 5.3 million tonnes. The reduced yields in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh are linked to specific agricultural strategies and environmental factors, while Karnataka faced challenges from excessive rain and high crush rates. However, planting conditions for the 2026-27 season show promise for improved output.

(With inputs from agencies.)