Cocoa Crop Forecast: A Bumper Harvest Predicted for 2025-2026

The 2025-2026 cocoa crop is forecasted to have a surplus of 365,000 metric tons globally, with Ivory Coast expected to produce 1.78 million tons. Ghana and Ecuador's production is predicted at 650,000 and 615,000 tons, respectively. Further upward revisions in these forecasts are possible.

The cocoa market is bracing for a significant surplus, as forecasts for the 2025-2026 crop season indicate a global excess of 365,000 metric tons. This projection comes from financial services firm Hedgepoint Global Markets.

Ivory Coast is set to lead production efforts with an expected output of 1.78 million tons, while Ghana's cocoa production is forecast to reach 650,000 tons. Ecuador is projected to yield 615,000 tons over the same period.

In a recent briefing, Hedgepoint analyst Carol Franca suggested that there may be room for upward revisions in Ghana and Ecuador's output, signaling potential for even greater production levels than currently anticipated.