Yemen’s Climate-Health Threat: How Rising Temperatures and Floods Endanger Millions

Yemen faces a severe climate-health crisis, with rising temperatures, floods, and food insecurity worsening disease outbreaks and straining an already fragile healthcare system. Urgent action is needed to strengthen governance, infrastructure, and funding to mitigate these escalating risks.

The Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment for Yemen, conducted by the World Bank, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), and the World Health Organization (WHO), presents an alarming picture of the country’s vulnerability to climate-induced health risks. With Yemen already facing economic collapse and ongoing conflict, climate change is exacerbating humanitarian challenges, threatening food security, water access, and healthcare infrastructure. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events such as floods and droughts are worsening living conditions, particularly for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and impoverished rural communities. Projections indicate an increase of up to 1.64°C in average temperatures by mid-century, while unpredictable rainfall patterns are intensifying both drought and flood risks. The combination of rising sea levels, saltwater intrusion, and damage to fragile agricultural lands is endangering food production and water availability, which are crucial for sustaining the already vulnerable population.

Food Insecurity and Malnutrition on the Rise

Yemen ranks as the 11th most food-insecure nation globally, with over 17 million people—half the population—facing food shortages. Malnutrition is widespread, with 40.7% of children moderately or severely underweight and 48.6% stunted. Agricultural production, already struggling due to poor resource management, is expected to decline by 40% in the next 20–30 years, primarily due to groundwater depletion and erratic rainfall. Rising temperatures will further reduce crop yields, particularly in Raymah, Abyan, and the eastern governorates, increasing reliance on food imports. Climate change could push an additional 1.2 million people into hunger by 2050, with pulses experiencing the highest yield losses in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The growing trend of qat cultivation, a non-food crop that consumes significant water resources, is further exacerbating food scarcity. Additionally, the fishing industry is projected to see a 16.6–23.1% decline in catch potential due to rising ocean temperatures and declining marine biodiversity, further limiting food sources for coastal communities.

Deadly Diseases Spread as Water Becomes Scarce

Waterborne diseases such as cholera, hepatitis A, and typhoid are escalating due to Yemen’s crumbling sanitation infrastructure. Over 61% of households struggle to access clean drinking water, forcing millions to rely on unregulated wells and unsafe water sources. Flooding events overwhelm sanitation systems, leading to outbreaks, particularly among children under five, 37.3% of whom suffer from diarrheal diseases regularly. By 2050, climate change is expected to cause 1.1 million additional cases of diarrhea, resulting in 200 extra deaths annually and over $156 million in healthcare costs. Poor sanitation further heightens disease risks, especially in rural and IDP communities, where over 50% of households lack access to improved sanitation.

Vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria and dengue, are also on the rise due to climate shifts that favor mosquito habitats. Aden, Al Hudaydah, and Taizz have reported repeated outbreaks, worsened by flooding and a lack of public health resources. The detection of Anopheles stephensi, a highly efficient malaria vector, in 2021 suggests a growing risk, especially for displaced populations in Aden and Ma’rib, where poor shelter conditions provide ideal breeding grounds for mosquitoes. By 2040–2069, projections indicate that 40 million people will be at risk of dengue and 25 million at risk of malaria, compared to 6.2 million and 4.7 million historically. The expansion of mosquito habitats will likely increase transmission rates, further straining Yemen’s fragile healthcare system.

Extreme Heat and Flooding Threaten Millions

Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent, particularly in Al Hudaydah, Aden, and Mukalla, where temperatures above 35°C are expected for up to 109 days annually by 2050. Heat-related illnesses are projected to increase tenfold among the elderly, with $73 million in excess health costs attributed to extreme heat stress. The most vulnerable groups include IDPs, outdoor workers, and malnourished children, as rising temperatures exacerbate dehydration, chronic illnesses, and labor-related fatalities. Currently, over five million people are at risk of life-threatening heatwaves, a number that will rise significantly, particularly in coastal areas.

Flooding remains Yemen’s most destructive climate hazard, accounting for 87% of economic losses from natural disasters over the past 50 years. By 2050, an estimated 5.3 million people will be exposed to dangerous flood levels, particularly in Sana’a, Al Jawf, and Shabwah, where up to 35% of the population lives in high-risk flood zones. The 2020 floods alone displaced 300,000 people, underscoring the urgent need for disaster preparedness. Additionally, 433 healthcare facilities are at risk of severe flooding by 2050, with eight major hospitals facing possible shutdowns due to water damage. The Mohammed Alotair Charity Hospital is projected to experience floodwaters exceeding one meter, making emergency response efforts nearly impossible.

Urgent Action Needed to Strengthen Yemen’s Health System

Yemen’s healthcare system is one of the weakest in the world, with only 2.94 doctors per 10,000 people, far below the global standard of 17.2. Most medical services rely on foreign aid, yet funding remains insufficient for long-term climate resilience. The country lacks a national strategy to integrate climate data into disease surveillance, further weakening its ability to respond to climate-sensitive health threats. Yemen’s Electronic Disease Warning System (eDEWS) has successfully tracked outbreaks but remains limited in scope, lacking climate-health forecasting capabilities. Additionally, public health spending covers only 2.23% of GDP, forcing 90% of healthcare expenses to be covered by out-of-pocket payments and foreign aid.

To address these challenges, the report calls for urgent climate-health governance reforms, including the establishment of a Climate and Health Coordinating Office, a Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP), and expanded disease surveillance to track climate-sensitive illnesses. Strengthening health infrastructure to withstand flooding, improving public awareness on climate-related diseases, and securing global climate funds such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and Climate Investment Funds (CIF) will be essential for Yemen’s long-term resilience.

Yemen is at a critical turning point, and without decisive action, climate change will devastate the country’s fragile healthcare system. The combination of food insecurity, water scarcity, disease outbreaks, extreme heat, and flooding presents a dire humanitarian crisis. Strengthening governance, healthcare infrastructure, and financing mechanisms is crucial to mitigating climate-driven health risks and ensuring sustainable development despite ongoing conflict and economic hardship.