Global Trade Surges in Early 2025, But Forecasts Remain Cautious

World trade volume surpassed expectations in early 2025, with North American imports surging as a pre-emptive move against anticipated U.S. tariffs. However, the World Trade Organization cautions that this growth may decelerate due to inventory saturation and continued tariff hikes. A revised forecast indicates slight positive growth instead of a decline.

The first quarter of 2025 saw an unexpected surge in global merchandise trade, driven largely by North America, according to the latest report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) released on Tuesday.

Despite exceeding initial expectations with a 3.6% quarter-on-quarter rise and a 5.3% year-on-year increase, the WTO warns that trade growth is likely to slow as inventories rise and higher tariffs take effect. North America's import activity, spurred by impending U.S. tariffs, heavily contributed to the surge.

While the WTO initially predicted a 0.2% decline in trade for the year, recent adjustments forecast slight growth, reflecting the impact of early imports and trade agreements. Specific sectors such as office and telecom equipment have notably outperformed, marking a 16% year-on-year growth, though industries like automotive experienced declines.

(With inputs from agencies.)