Transforming Asia’s Food Future: Investment and Reform to Defeat Hunger by 2050

Asia and the Pacific can dramatically cut hunger, boost farm incomes, and reduce emissions by 2050 through major investments in agricultural R&D, modern irrigation, rural infrastructure, and subsidy reforms. Without these interventions, climate pressures, slowing productivity, and rising costs will keep the region off track for meeting its food security goals.

Asia and the Pacific stand at a decisive moment in the pursuit of food security, as revealed by a major analysis led by researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, and agricultural economists working with the Asian Development Bank. Despite dramatic progress between 2000 and 2019, when undernourishment fell from 14.3% to 7.3%, hunger has surged again, driven by climate shocks, conflict, rising fuel and fertilizer costs, and the long tail of COVID-19. Nearly 400 million people were undernourished by 2021, and current trends suggest South Asia, West Asia, and the Pacific will fall short of the 2030 global target to eradicate hunger. Demographic and economic shifts offer limited relief: population growth is slowing, incomes are rising unevenly, and climate pressures are set to push global food prices upward.

Food Systems Under Strain

The brief paints a picture of food systems grappling with multiple stressors. Diets are shifting from cereals toward livestock products, fruit, vegetables, and oils, intensifying pressure on land and water. Value chains remain costly and inefficient, burdened by weak transport infrastructure and high transaction costs. Digital technologies promise efficiency, but stay out of reach for many farmers due to cost and skill barriers. Agricultural input subsidies, long used to support farmers, often encourage excessive use of water, fertilizer, and energy while diverting public resources from more productive investments. Meanwhile, climate change is eroding yields, water scarcity is tightening, and productivity growth in major agricultural economies such as India, China, and Southeast Asia slowed substantially during 2010–2020.

Investment Pathways That Change the Trajectory

Using IFPRI’s IMPACT model, the assessment evaluates eight scenarios, including agricultural R&D, irrigation expansion, water-use efficiency, rural infrastructure development, subsidy repurposing, and trade liberalization. Agricultural R&D emerges as the single most powerful lever: major increases in CGIAR and national research funding, private-sector participation, and research efficiency could raise crop yields by 25% by 2050. Livestock yields also rise, though more modestly, due to structural challenges in breeding, feeding, and disease management. Irrigation investments bring another layer of impact. Expanding irrigation boosts output but raises water use, especially in South and Southeast Asia. However, pairing expansion with modernized water-use efficiency reverses the trend entirely, reducing blue water withdrawals by more than 7% by 2050, with the steepest declines in the Pacific, East Asia, and Southeast Asia.

Transformative Potential of Integrated Investments

Rural infrastructure investments, roads, electrification, storage facilities, and market information systems cut post-harvest losses in half, improve marketing efficiency, and provide both producers and consumers with better price outcomes. When R&D, irrigation modernization, and infrastructure are combined into a single comprehensive investment package, the effect is transformative. Productivity surges, unskilled workers migrate to higher-paying jobs, and household incomes rise by up to 6% across the region by 2050. World prices for cereals, pulses, fruits, vegetables, and livestock products fall relative to the baseline, improving access to nutritious foods. Diets diversify while cereal consumption remains strong among low-income households, helping reduce hunger. Under this comprehensive scenario, Asia and the Pacific reach the Sustainable Development Goal threshold of reducing hunger below 5% by 2029, almost a decade ahead of the reference trajectory. Hunger decreases by 102 million people by 2035 and by 90 million by 2050.

Reform, Resilience, and a Sustainable Future

Policy reforms amplify these gains. Repurposing just 30% of agricultural subsidies in eight major countries, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, toward productive investments boosts regional agricultural output by 22% and reduces hunger by 60 million people by 2050. Trade liberalization delivers smaller but meaningful improvements by lowering distortions and increasing allocative efficiency. Climate-smart technologies further strengthen resilience: precision agriculture, efficient irrigation, methane-reducing livestock feed, improved rice cultivation, renewable energy, soil carbon sequestration, and zero tillage all contribute to lowering emissions. In the most ambitious R&D scenario, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions fall by 26% by 2050.

The overarching message is clear: with bold investment, modernized irrigation, reformed subsidies, and strengthened extension and market systems, Asia and the Pacific can eradicate hunger, boost incomes, conserve water, and cut emissions by mid-century. The roadmap is detailed, achievable, and urgent, and the window to act is narrowing fast.