Beyond Urban Decline: How Shrinking Cities Are Reshaping Post-Growth Urban Theory

The study argues that shrinking cities are not urban failures but a normal and complex form of post-growth development, shaped by intertwined demographic, economic, spatial, ecological, and governance changes rather than simple population decline. Using an AI-assisted review of 183 studies, it calls for moving beyond growth-focused thinking toward adaptive, equitable, and context-specific urban strategies.

Produced by researchers from the University of Sheffield, University College London’s Bartlett School of Architecture, and King’s College London, the study tackles a growing but often misunderstood urban reality: cities that are losing people, jobs, and spatial intensity in a world no longer driven by endless urban growth. Rather than treating urban shrinkage as a sign of failure or decline, the authors argue that it should be understood as a distinct and increasingly normal pathway of urban development, shaped by big structural changes in demographics, economies, land use, ecology, and governance. Drawing on a systematic review of 183 peer-reviewed studies from around the world, the paper aims to clarify what shrinking cities really are, how scholars have studied them, and where current thinking still falls short.

A New Way of Reviewing Urban Research

One of the paper’s major contributions lies in how the review was conducted. Instead of relying solely on traditional manual synthesis, the authors combined systematic review methods with artificial intelligence, using the ChatGPT-4o large language model to extract structured information from each article. This allowed them to analyse thousands of data points consistently across a very large body of literature, while still verifying results through expert review.

Through this approach, the authors organised shrinking cities research into five connected dimensions: population and social change, economic and industrial transformation, spatial form and land use, ecological and environmental effects, and governance and policy responses. This framework helps reveal patterns that are often missed when studies focus on only one aspect of decline.

Who Studies Shrinking Cities and Where

The review shows that shrinking cities research is heavily concentrated in developed regions. East Asia, Europe, and North America dominate the literature, with China, Japan, Germany, and the United States appearing most frequently. East Asia alone accounts for more than half of all studies, reflecting growing concern about population ageing and localised decline even in countries still experiencing urbanisation overall.

By contrast, cities in Africa, Central Asia, and much of the Global South receive little attention. This imbalance, the authors note, limits our understanding of how shrinkage plays out under different political, economic, and institutional conditions, and reinforces a narrow, “Global North” view of urban decline.

Beyond Population Loss: What Shrinkage Really Looks Like

Although population decline is the most commonly used indicator of urban shrinkage, the paper shows that shrinkage is far more complex than falling numbers alone. Population loss is highly selective: younger, better-educated residents tend to leave, while older and lower-income groups are more likely to stay behind. This deepens social inequality, weakens community networks, and strains public services.

Economically, shrinkage does not always mean collapse. Some cities manage to maintain economic activity even as their populations shrink, challenging traditional assumptions that growth and vitality must go hand in hand. Spatially, shrinking cities rarely contract neatly. Instead, many experience declining city centres alongside continued expansion at the edges, leading to vacant land, underused infrastructure, and fragmented urban form.

Ecologically, shrinkage creates both risks and opportunities. Abandoned land can become a burden if left unmanaged, but it can also support green spaces, ecological restoration, and climate adaptation. However, environmental benefits are often unevenly distributed, raising concerns about environmental justice.

Why Old Policies No Longer Work

The paper makes clear that many urban policies still assume growth as the default goal. In shrinking cities, these approaches often fail. Large infrastructure projects, expansion-oriented planning, and competition for investment can worsen decline rather than reverse it. As a result, cities are increasingly experimenting with adaptive governance approaches that focus on managing decline, improving quality of life, and using resources more strategically.

Research shows a gradual shift from government-only decision-making toward more collaborative models involving communities, civil society, and private actors. While this can improve flexibility and local relevance, it also introduces new challenges related to coordination, accountability, and inequality.

A Call to See Shrinkage Differently

The authors conclude that the biggest obstacle in shrinking cities research is not a lack of data, but outdated thinking. By treating shrinkage as the opposite of growth, scholars and policymakers miss its internal logic and mixed outcomes, where decline and renewal often happen at the same time. The paper calls for new theories, better tools, and more flexible governance models that accept shrinkage as a long-term reality rather than a temporary problem.

In doing so, it reframes shrinking cities not as symbols of failure, but as testing grounds for more realistic, equitable, and sustainable urban futures in a post-growth world