Turkey's Political Crossroads: Ozel Forms New Party to Challenge Erdogan

Ozgur Ozel, Turkey's ousted opposition leader, plans to form a new political party to contest President Tayyip Erdogan, potentially fragmenting the opposition and benefiting Erdogan's extended rule. Elections are scheduled for 2028, but early elections could enable Erdogan to run again, while constitutional challenges loom.

Turkey's political landscape faces a shake-up as Ozgur Ozel, former leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), announces plans to establish a new party. This move could fracture the opposition further, inadvertently assisting President Tayyip Erdogan's chances of extending his long-standing rule.

The next presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey are set for May 14, 2028. However, Erdogan, who has reached his two-term limit under Turkey's executive presidency system, may benefit from an earlier election, as it would allow him to run again.

To trigger an early election requires a parliamentary majority of three-fifths. Erdogan's alliance is seeking additional support to meet this threshold. Meanwhile, Ozel is advocating for an early vote amidst a legal crackdown on his former party. A constitutional amendment has also been proposed as a potential but risky path for Erdogan.