Informal poll shows Costa Rica's Grynspan ahead in race to be next UN chief

Former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan has emerged as the early frontrunner to become the next U.N. secretary-general in a non-binding Security Council straw poll.

A first informal U.N. Security Council poll on Thursday showed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan as the early frontrunner to become the next U.N. secretary-general, followed by former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett. In the non-binding "straw poll" voting by the ‌15 members of the Security Council, Grynspan received 10 "encourage" votes to nine for Rodrigues-Birkett and seven for Argentina's Rafael Grossi, head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, diplomats said. The candidates are seeking to replace Portugal's Antonio Guterres when he steps down at the year-end after two five-year terms. Guterres' successor faces the task of revitalizing an organization in crisis and declining stature, amid growing pressure to reform what critics say is a bloated, costly bureaucracy and ‌reduce duplication across its agencies. In the straw polls, of which multiple rounds are expected, Security Council members are asked in secret ballotsif they "encourage," "discourage" or have "no opinion" on candidates. Diplomats said Grynspan, an ‌economist born to Jewish parents who left Europe after surviving the Holocaust, received one "discourage" vote and four no-opinions. Rodrigues-Birkett received two discourage votes and four no-opinions, and Grossi two discourage votes and six no-opinions. In the early rounds of straw polls, identical ballots are cast, allowing diplomats to see overall levels of support and opposition without revealing whether negative votes came from one of the Council's five veto-wielding permanent members (P5) – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – whose support is vital. At a later stage, ⁠the five permanent ​members use ballots of a different color that reveal ⁠whether a candidate has received a "discourage" vote from one of them.

The other candidates are former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorean Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, who entered the race last ⁠week. Bachelet received six encourage, five discourage and four no-opinions; Sall six encourage, seven discourage and two no-opinions; Espinosa five encourage, two discourage and eight no-opinions; and Otunnu two encourage, five discourage and eight no-opinions. The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Mike ​Waltz, told reporters the voting was confidential and added: "We'll let the process play out ... We need a Secretary-General that is going to reform this institution, that is going to make it ⁠leaner, more fit for purpose, more relevant on the international stage."

MULTIPLE ROUNDS EXPECTED Two diplomats said the pollwas encouraging for Grynspan - assuming her discourage vote did not come from a P5 member, while another added: "Birkett is the surprise there. If the two discourage are not P5, ⁠she ​could sneak in." Another diplomat said the poll revealed "no consensus" on any one candidate. There has never been a secretary-general of Jewish background, nor a woman, in the U.N.'s 80-year history. Israel's U.N. ambassador, Danny Danon, who accuses Guterres of anti-Israel bias, said the next secretary-general "must remember that the United Nations was created to serve all Member States equally" and "confront the institutional antisemitism that has become embedded within parts of the ⁠U.N. system." U.N. expert Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group said the voting showed choosing a new U.N. chief "is not going to be quick." Historical precedent suggests multiple rounds of polling could continue in ⁠the coming weeks and conclude in late September or early ⁠October. The process could take longer if no consensus candidate emerges.

Other candidates can still join the contest. The Security Council ultimately adopts a resolution recommending an appointment to the 193-member U.N. General Assembly. This needs nine votes in favor and no vetoes. Subsequent General Assembly approval has long been seen as a formality.