Tunisia’s oases face collapse unless sustainable water and land reforms are adopted

The World Bank, in partnership with Tunisian research institutes, warns that Tunisia’s oases face collapse from groundwater depletion, climate change, and poor governance. With bold reforms, sustainable practices, and inclusive management, these fragile landscapes could instead become hubs of green jobs, resilience, and low-carbon growth.

A new World Bank report, prepared in collaboration with the Institut des Régions Arides (IRA) in Médenine, the Institut National de Recherche en Génie Rural, Eaux et Forêts (INRGREF), the Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie (INAT), and the Direction Générale des Ressources en Eaux (DGRE), has placed Tunisia’s oases under the spotlight as fragile ecosystems facing existential challenges. The study underscores that these centuries-old palm groves are not only ecological jewels but also potential anchors for sustainable, low-carbon development. Framing oases as crossroads of adaptation, mitigation, and livelihoods, the report warns that without decisive reforms, Tunisia risks seeing its oasis landscapes collapse under climate stress and mismanagement.

Expansion at a Dangerous Cost

Over the past three decades, oasis agriculture has expanded dramatically, swelling from 17,500 hectares in 1992 to more than 51,000 hectares today. This growth has largely been fueled by deep groundwater extraction, particularly in the arid south, where aquifers are being mined at unsustainable rates. While the expansion has created clear economic gains, particularly through date production, the underlying resource base is deteriorating. Date exports now represent the country’s second most valuable agricultural commodity after olive oil, earning more than 700 million dinars in 2023/24 and employing thousands. But the boom hides a looming bust: water tables are dropping by as much as five meters a year in some areas, unregulated drilling has surged, and salinization threatens both soil fertility and crop productivity. Traditional oases, once celebrated for their multi-layered cultivation systems combining palms, fruit trees, and vegetables, are shrinking in biodiversity and resilience.

Climate Change Tightens the Noose

If unsustainable management were not enough, climate change is tightening the pressure on Tunisia’s oases. The report cites models projecting temperature increases of up to 1.9 degrees Celsius and rainfall declines of nearly nine percent by 2050. Such changes will magnify the frequency of droughts, floods, and heatwaves, hitting vulnerable farmers hardest. Already, irregular rainfall patterns and declining water quality have raised production costs and cut yields. The study insists that safeguarding oases must be at the heart of Tunisia’s climate strategy, aligning with the country’s updated nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement. In the authors’ view, sustainable management of oases represents one of Tunisia’s most effective tools for building climate resilience while protecting rural livelihoods.

A Blueprint for Green Transformation

The heart of the report is a catalogue of interventions that could transform Tunisia’s oases into climate-smart, job-creating landscapes. It highlights traditional biodiversity-based systems of layered cultivation as models of resilience, while advocating modern practices such as organic farming, biochar soil enhancement, wastewater reuse, and solar-powered irrigation. Some options, such as organic date farming, not only reduce emissions but also open premium export markets, creating opportunities for youth and women. Biochar, meanwhile, is flagged as a particularly powerful tool for carbon sequestration. The authors present two contrasting scenarios: under business-as-usual, expansion continues, but ecosystems degrade and vulnerability deepens. Under a proactive scenario, rooted in political will and rapid adoption of sustainable practices, Tunisia could see nearly seven billion dinars in additional income, more than 33,000 jobs, and a reduction of 22.5 million tons of CO₂ equivalent emissions by 2050. These figures, drawn from the report’s modeling, underscore the transformative potential of bold action.

Governance as the Decisive Factor

Yet the report stresses that technology and finance alone will not secure the oases. Governance is described as the linchpin of success. Today, responsibility for oases is divided among ministries, local councils, user associations, and cooperatives, often working without coordination. This patchwork has produced inefficiencies, weak enforcement of water rules, and limited community voice. The authors propose Integrated Development Plans for Oasis Governance, tailored to each region, supported by harmonized strategies across agriculture, water, and environmental sectors. They call for modernizing Tunisia’s regulatory codes to reflect the unique realities of oasis systems and even recommend exploring UNESCO biosphere reserve status for traditional oases. By aligning governance, investment, and community engagement, oases could be repositioned as laboratories of resilience and green growth.

Beyond economics and governance, the study emphasizes the cultural and heritage dimensions of oases. These landscapes are living archives of adaptation, embodying centuries of knowledge about how to manage scarce resources in hostile environments. Their loss would represent not only economic decline but also an erosion of identity, biodiversity, and social fabric. Conversely, their revival could anchor a diversified green economy in Tunisia’s south, linking agriculture, renewable energy, and tourism in sustainable value chains that involve farmers, cooperatives, and private investors.

The report closes with both urgency and optimism. It warns that entrenched interests, weak institutions, and climate stress could still push Tunisia’s oases toward collapse if reforms stall. But it also argues that the tools for renewal are at hand: sustainable technologies, international financing, and the commitment of local communities. The choice is stark but clear: Tunisia can either allow its oases to wither slowly under the combined pressures of mismanagement and climate change, or it can seize the opportunity to transform them into vibrant, low-carbon landscapes that sustain both people and planet.