Why Africa’s Intermediary Cities Hold the Key to Climate-Smart Urban Development

The OECD Development Centre and UN-Habitat report argues that fast-growing intermediary cities in Kenya and Mozambique can still avoid carbon-intensive, car-dependent development if they act early. By using systems thinking to align transport, land use, and governance, cities like Nakuru, Kiambu, Beira, and Quelimane can pursue low-emission growth while improving access, resilience, and quality of life

Produced by the OECD Development Centre and UN-Habitat, this report argues that Africa’s intermediary cities are reaching a critical turning point. Cities such as Nakuru and Kiambu in Kenya and Beira and Quelimane in Mozambique are growing rapidly, yet they are not locked into high-carbon development in the way many large global cities already are. Much of their infrastructure, transport systems, and planning frameworks are still being built. This gives them a rare opportunity to avoid car-dependent, sprawling, and polluting urban models and instead move toward cities that are cleaner, more inclusive, and easier to live in.

Fast growth, rising risks

Urban growth in Kenya and Mozambique is accelerating. Kenya’s urban population is expected to grow by almost 80% by 2050, while Mozambique’s built-up urban land is projected to more than triple. Although both countries contribute only a small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, emissions from transport are rising quickly and have become the main source of urban pollution. As cities expand outward, people travel longer distances, informal motorised transport grows, and congestion worsens. These trends raise emissions but also increase local problems such as air pollution, road accidents, poor access to jobs and services, and high infrastructure costs. The report stresses that climate mitigation in cities is not only about global climate goals; it is also about improving daily life, health, and economic efficiency.

Thinking in systems, not quick fixes

A central message of the report is that urban problems cannot be solved with isolated measures. Building more roads to reduce congestion, for example, often makes traffic worse by encouraging more driving. To address this, the report uses a systems thinking approach that looks at how transport, land use, investment decisions, governance structures, and social attitudes interact over time. Instead of focusing only on visible problems like traffic jams, systems thinking helps identify the deeper causes that keep cities locked into unsustainable patterns. The OECD and UN-Habitat apply a four-step method that helps cities imagine a long-term future, understand how current systems work, identify key leverage points for change, and co-design practical solutions with local stakeholders.

Four cities, different paths, shared lessons

The case studies reveal both warnings and opportunities. In Nakuru and Kiambu, road expansion has encouraged more car use and the rapid growth of informal transport services such as matatus and motorcycle taxis. At the same time, unplanned urban expansion has pushed housing far from jobs and services, making walking and cycling harder and increasing dependence on motorised travel. These forces reinforce each other, driving congestion and emissions higher. In Mozambique, Beira’s wide road network has delayed congestion, creating a false sense of security. Once traffic increases further, the city risks a sudden and costly lock-in to car-based mobility. Quelimane stands out as a positive example, with a strong cycling culture supported by thousands of taxi bikes. This low-emission system supports livelihoods and accessibility, but it is fragile and threatened by urban sprawl, rising incomes, and flood risks linked to climate change.

What change can look like

Across all four cities, workshops with local governments, planners, transport operators, and civil society produced remarkably similar visions of the future. Participants envisioned cities where walking and cycling are safe and attractive, public transportation is reliable and affordable, streets serve as public spaces, and green areas enhance the quality of life. To move toward these goals, the report highlights key areas for action: redesigning streets to serve people rather than cars, planning cities around access to services rather than travel speed, building integrated public transport systems instead of relying on unregulated informal services, and changing social attitudes that see car ownership as the main symbol of success. The report concludes that intermediary cities still have time to act. With early, coordinated, and system-wide decisions, they can avoid repeating the mistakes of larger cities and instead build urban futures that are low-carbon, resilient, and fair for their residents.