OPEC Adjusts 2026 Oil Demand Forecast Amid Hormuz Closure

OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day, marking the second consecutive downward revision. Despite the ongoing Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, consumption is expected to rebound in 2027, with demand predicted to rise by 1.73 million barrels per day.

OPEC has revised its 2026 world oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, according to its latest monthly report. This marks the second consecutive downward revision, contrasting with predictions from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, which anticipate a more significant consumption impact due to the ongoing Iran conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz closure, a pivotal route for Middle East oil, has notably affected global fuel prices, impacting businesses and consumers worldwide. However, OPEC remains optimistic about future demand, projecting a rebound in 2027 with growth expected to rise by 1.73 million barrels per day, surpassing previous forecasts by 190,000 bpd.

OPEC+ nations have struggled with production increases due to geopolitical tensions, resulting in a decrease in output to an average of 33.13 million bpd in May. Significant drops were noted from Iran amidst U.S. blockades. The report also noted the United Arab Emirates' departure from the group at the start of May.